Sugar and ethanol production grows in the North and Northeast

With approximately 59% of the 2024-2025 sugarcane harvest already completed in the North and Northeast regions, sugarcane processing reached 35,86 million tons, 2,2% higher than the total in the same period of the last harvest. According to the Association of Sugar, Ethanol and Bioenergy Producers (NovaBio), the current agricultural season, marked by the absence of regular rainfall, will come to an end with a lower crushing than expected, but with a higher concentration of Total Recoverable Sugar (ATR) per ton of sugarcane, raw material transformed into sugar and biofuel.

“The irregular rainfall observed, at least until December, should reduce the total sugarcane crushing by around one million tons in relation to the volume projected until the end of this harvest, initially estimated at 63 million tons. On the other hand, the drought increased the ATR, the sugarcane richness”, explains NovaBio CEO Renato Cunha. He adds, however, that the levels of sucrose extracted from the plant should increase on average between 8 and 12 kg/ton in the Northeast region alone. Therefore, the harvest will be slightly smaller, but with the production of final products in greater volume than in the 2023-2024 cycle. The irregular rainfall may also have a more pronounced impact on the crushing potential of the 2025-2026 harvest.

Data from the entity, which brings together 35 sugarcane processing plants in 11 Brazilian states, reveal that the production of hydrated ethanol, available at the pumps to fuel flex-fuel vehicles, increased by 27,9%, reaching 933,5 million liters, compared to 729,7 million liters produced in the last harvest. In the same period, sugar production was 2,18 million tons, surpassing by 18,2% the 1,84 million tons at the end of 2024. The Northeast is expected to continue to export around 62% of its sugar production, notably through the ports of Maceió (AL), Recife (PE) and Suape (PE) and, to a lesser extent, João Pessoa (PB) and Natal (RN).

In the production of anhydrous ethanol, which is mixed with gasoline, there was a 25,9% drop compared to the previous harvest. According to Cunha, who also chairs the Sugar and Alcohol Industry Union in the State of Pernambuco (Sindaçúcar/PE), the accumulated total for the 2024-2025 harvest was 561,2 million liters, compared to the 756,8 million liters produced in the 2023-2024 period.

“This drop reflects the unpredictability of fuel pricing and competitiveness policies in Brazil. In a country that has the potential to lead the global energy transition, whose basic premises demand sustainable solutions for the transportation sector, the lack of rules that guarantee greater competitiveness for sugarcane ethanol, of renewable origin, is worrying,” highlights the executive from NovaBio and Sindaçúcar-PE. Total ethanol production (anhydrous and hydrated) reached 1,49 billion liters against 1,48 billion produced in the 2023-2024 agricultural cycle, an increase of 0,5%.

The physical stock of hydrated ethanol increased by 51,03%, with 261,8 million liters compared to 173,3 million liters stored in the last crushing season. In total, counting anhydrous and hydrated ethanol, the stock grew by 2,20%, totaling 458,6 million liters compared to 448,7 million liters in the 2023-2024 season.

Sugarcane production by state up to November 30 reached the following levels:

Amazonas 0,36 million tons

Maranhao 2,14 million tons

Pará 1,24 million tons

Piauí 1,13 million tons

Tocantins 2,25 million tons

Alagoas 9,10 million tons

Pernambuco 7,58 million tons

Bahia 4,41 million tons

Paraíba 4,33 million tons

Northern RG 2,14 million tons

Sergipe 1,19 million tons

Total up to November 30: 35,86 million tons of sugarcane.