StoneX revises its soybean forecast to 183,36 million tons.

StoneX has made a slight change to its soybean production outlook for the 2026/27 cycle. Driven mainly by a revision to the area in the state of Tocantins, total production for the 2026/27 cycle is estimated at 183,36 million tons. According to Raphael Bulascoschi, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, this is a marginal revision compared to the previous month's estimate.  

Planting is progressing relatively normally in most producing regions, easing concerns, especially regarding the second crop window. Even so, when it comes to soybeans, the weather – both rainfall and temperature – will be the main point of attention in this last quarter of the year. 

In this scenario, El Niño still represents a point of concern, potentially impacting mainly the northernmost states of the country.

Estimates for the 2026/27 second corn crop.

StoneX has not revised its first-crop corn production forecast for the 2026/27 cycle. The outlook remains favorable, driven primarily by Rio Grande do Sul, which is expected to expand its planted area compared to last year, and potentially has good productivity levels given the favorable weather outlook for the state. 

With this, Brazil is still projected to harvest a first corn crop of 29,3 million tons, an increase of 2,4% compared to 2025/26. 

Planting is progressing quite well so far, while the market, as with soybeans, will be monitoring weather conditions in November, when the crop is expected to enter a more critical period of vegetative development.

Balance of Supply & Demand

Soybean

StoneX maintains its estimates for the 2026/27 soybean crop. With production projected to be a record, there will be ample supply to satisfy both the domestic market and exports next year. 

The lack of news regarding the relationship between the United States and China in the soybean market after the Washington summit at the end of September continues to make Brazil economically attractive to the world's largest importer. 

Nevertheless, the political relationship between the countries will continue to be an important factor to monitor in the coming months.

Corn

Given the slower pace of corn shipments we have seen in recent months, StoneX has revised its export estimates for the 2025/26 crop year downwards to 40 million tons. 

This revision to export demand should contribute to higher ending inventories, raising the inventory-to-use ratio to 20,85% and contributing to higher beginning inventories for the 2026/27 crop year, helping to maintain domestic supply in the first half of next year.

Estimates for the 2025/26 second corn crop.

StoneX has again slightly revised its 2025/26 second-crop corn production estimate upwards. The positive adjustment in productivity in Mato Grosso do Sul added approximately 150 tons to the state's production, bringing the 2025/26 second crop to 111 million tons. 

With the harvest complete, attention turns to the pace of shipments and the outlook for the 2026/27 crop. In this context, StoneX will publish its first estimate for the 2026/27 second crop in November, offering a more accurate view of the supply and demand balance for next year.

StoneX maintained its estimates for the third corn crop in the northern and northeastern states of Brazil. With low yields expected, total production remains estimated at 1,78 million tons.