StoneX raises estimates for the 2025/26 soybean and corn crop.

StoneX, a global financial services company, has revised its estimates for Brazilian grain production in the 2025/26 crop year upwards, with a particular emphasis on soybeans, according to a report released today. Soybean production is now estimated at 181,6 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons compared to the previous projection.

The increase in production stems from adjustments in both the cultivated area, estimated at 48,7 million hectares, and the average national productivity, projected at 3,73 tons per hectare.

“With the harvest progressing, the outlook remains quite positive, although some areas are showing greater variability due to the irregular weather patterns that occurred throughout the cycle,” highlights Ana Luiza Lodi, Market Intelligence specialist at StoneX.

For the first corn crop, StoneX also made a positive revision. Production for the 2025/26 crop could reach 26,6 million tons, representing a 2,3% increase compared to the last figure and just over 1 million tons above that recorded in the 2024/25 cycle.

This increase was mainly driven by productivity revisions, with positive adjustments in states in the Northeast, as well as Paraná. In the South of the country, the expectation is for a very high average yield, potentially reaching 11,5 tons per hectare in the Paraná harvest. In the case of summer corn, the states in the North and Northeast still have a later cycle, keeping the weather under scrutiny.

In the case of the second corn crop, the revision in production in the January report was subtle, 0,5%, going from an estimated 105,8 million tons in January to 106,3 million tons this month. There was an increase in planted area in Tocantins and Pará, while Maranhão and Piauí registered a reduction, with producers paying close attention to the planting period for the second corn crop.

Corn | Estimates for the 2025/26 second crop

Supply and demand projections remain unchanged.

In its supply and demand analysis, StoneX maintained its soybean demand estimate for the 2025/26 cycle unchanged. Even so, with the harvest progressing, Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans are expected to become increasingly significant in the coming months.

“The world’s largest importer has fulfilled the initial terms of the agreement with the United States, even with US soybeans being less competitive. The expectation is that China will refocus on Brazil from now on,” explains Ana Luiza.

Therefore, the increased estimate for soybean production ended up resulting in higher ending stocks, since there were no changes in demand. For corn, there were also no adjustments to the demand variables for the 2025/26 crop year, but the increase in estimated production was offset by the drop in beginning stocks, reflecting the increase in exports in the 2024/25 cycle.

"With the 2024/25 crop year ending in late January, Brazilian corn shipments are expected to total around 42 million tons, with official data scheduled for release on February 5th," concludes Ana Luiza.