StoneX projects 8,9% growth in the biodiesel market by 2025

StoneX, a global financial services company, released an update to its projections for the biodiesel and soybean oil sectors in Brazil, following the National Energy Policy Council's (CNPE) decision in late June to increase the mandatory biodiesel blend from 14% to 15% starting in August 2025.

With the change, projected biodiesel demand had been raised from 9,6 to 9,9 million m³ during this period. Now, after adjusting the expected growth in diesel B consumption (from 3,0% to 2,7%), StoneX has slightly reduced its biodiesel estimate to 9,8 million m³. "Even so, the volume represents a significant increase of 8,9% compared to 2024," highlights Market Intelligence analyst Leonardo Rossetti.

Soybean oil consumption registers a 10,3% increase

Soybean oil consumption for biodiesel followed the revision, rising from 8,0 to 7,9 million tons, an increase of 10,3% compared to 2024. According to Rossetti, 3,66 million tons have been consumed so far, an increase of 8,2% compared to the same period last year.

“At this rate, StoneX estimates that soybean oil's share of the biodiesel input matrix has exceeded 85% in the first half of the year,” the analyst shares.

In this scenario, the increased share of beef tallow in the input matrix could provide some relief given the strong demand for soybean oil. Due to the 50% import tariff imposed by the United States, the market is expected to direct more product to domestic consumption. Between January and July, Brazil exported 290 tons of tallow to the country, an annual increase of 84%.

Advance in biodiesel sales in the first half of the year

The biodiesel market performed well in the first half of 2025, according to a StoneX report. Year-to-date sales totaled 4,53 million cubic meters, a 6,2% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

The highlight was May, when 819 m³ were sold, the highest monthly volume of the year and the 4th highest in the historical series, an increase of 11,4% compared to 2024. In June, the result was more moderate: 746 m³, a decrease of 8,9% compared to May and 1,6% compared to the same month last year. "The lower-than-expected performance was attributed to delays in the harvest of the 2nd corn crop, which shifted part of the demand to July," says Rossetti.

For the second half of the year, demand is expected to intensify, supported by the seasonality of demand for diesel B and the introduction of the mandatory B15 blend, factors that could lead the market to record new monthly sales records.

"This scenario is expected to increase pressure on the availability of soybean oil, the main input for biodiesel. Although the use of beef tallow could partially alleviate the balance, the trend is for a reduction in soybean oil exports to prioritize domestic consumption. As a result, StoneX projects a tighter market with sustained prices for oil and biodiesel," concludes Rossetti.