StoneX maintains its projection for cotton in the 2026/27 crop year.

Brazilian cotton production for the 2025/26 crop year is estimated at 4,1 million tons, according to a September update from StoneX. The consultancy made few changes to this month's projections, but positively revised the expected productivity for Bahia, given the results obtained with the progress of the harvest in the state.

Productivity in Bahia has been revised to 2,21 tons per hectare. According to Raphael Bulascoschi, Market Intelligence analyst at StoneX Brazil, yields continue to surprise positively, while in Mato Grosso, harvest results confirm the productivity projected in previous estimates.

For the 2026/27 crop season, the consultancy maintained its projections. The expectation of favorable international prices should stimulate the expansion of the area cultivated with cotton in Brazil, a trend that was already incorporated into the estimates.

Exports

In the supply and demand balance, StoneX made no changes in this update. The positive revision of the supply in the 2025/26 crop year is expected to contribute to the formation of stocks.

As the year progresses into its final quarter, the consulting firm predicts an acceleration in Brazilian exports and highlights the need to keep pace with shipments. The estimate is for 3,3 million tons exported in 2026, a volume considered consistent with the current scenario.

For the next harvest, the export projection remains at 3,12 million tons.