StoneX maintains its estimate for the 2025/26 cotton crop.

StoneX, a global financial services company, maintained its estimate for Brazilian cotton production in the 2025/26 crop year unchanged this March, projecting it at 3,74 million tons. Despite maintaining this figure, the consultancy emphasizes that the cycle still warrants caution, especially due to weather conditions and the stage of crop development in the country's main producing regions.

In Mato Grosso, the largest national producer of the fiber, crop development is still considered to be in its early stages, although it has shown satisfactory performance so far. According to StoneX, the regularity of rainfall throughout April will be crucial in determining crop yields in the state, especially in areas where planting was later.

“Development is still in a very early stage in some regions of Mato Grosso, which makes the weather in the coming weeks crucial for consolidating the crop's productive potential,” says Raphael Bulascoschi, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX. “Areas planted later require extra attention, as they are more sensitive to any weather irregularities.”

In Bahia, on the other hand, the scenario is more favorable. The rainfall volumes recorded so far have been above the historical average, contributing to more advanced crop development. This climatic environment supports the current productivity projection for the state, estimated at 1,97 tons per hectare.

“In Bahia, the weather has been very favorable. The crops are more advanced, and the good rainfall patterns are helping to make the current productivity estimate more concrete,” Bulascoschi points out.

supply and demand

The March estimate for Brazilian cotton exports in 2026, according to StoneX's March report, reaches 3,1 million tons, a 3,3% increase compared to the February estimate. The main factor behind this revision is the significant volume of the harvest in the previous cycle, which increased the availability of the product for the foreign market.

Furthermore, expectations of stronger demand in important consumer markets, such as China and Pakistan, especially in the first half of the year, should favor the pace of Brazilian shipments in the coming months.

“The combination of a robust supply and firmer international demand tends to support good export performance throughout the first half of the year,” explains Bulascoschi. “Even so, the market will remain attentive to the productive potential of the current harvest and how this may influence the flow of shipments in the second half of the year.”

According to StoneX, the behavior of production throughout the cycle will be crucial not only for the balance of supply and demand, but also for the competitiveness of Brazilian cotton in the international market throughout 2026.