StoneX: China cuts phosphate exports in 2025

Chinese exports of high-concentration phosphate fertilizers reached their lowest volume in recent years in 2025. According to data from the weekly fertilizer report by StoneX, a global financial services company, China shipped 5,3 million tons of MAP and DAP in the year, an 18% drop compared to 2024 and the lowest level since 2013.

The reduced Chinese supply has intensified the global competition for phosphates, leading importers to seek alternative suppliers and contributing to price stability in major producing markets. "The reduced availability of cargoes from China tightens the global balance and hinders price decreases, especially during periods of higher demand," emphasizes market intelligence analyst Tomás Pernías.

In 2025, Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia, Vietnam, and Thailand were among the main destinations for Chinese phosphates. During periods of export decline, these countries tend to feel the impacts more immediately. However, Pernías points out that the effect is not limited to large direct buyers. "Even countries less dependent on China end up being indirectly affected, since the tightening of supply raises prices in various markets," he explains.

In Brazil, high prices for phosphate fertilizers, such as MAP, throughout 2025 made purchasing planning difficult and pressured producers' margins, amidst unattractive terms of trade. This scenario stimulated increased demand for lower-concentration alternatives, such as single superphosphate (SSP), given the higher costs of high-concentration phosphate fertilizers.

Although China will account for approximately 3% of Brazilian MAP and DAP imports in 2025, Brazilian buyers have other relevant suppliers, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 44% and 25% of purchases, respectively. Even so, the Brazilian market is not immune to the indirect effects of the Chinese slowdown, given the importance of the Asian country in global supply.

The reduction in exports is linked to Chinese trade policy, which traditionally restricts shipments during periods of higher domestic demand or stock replenishment, prioritizing the supply of the domestic market. Rumors are already circulating that China will keep phosphate exports limited for much of 2026.

“If this scenario is confirmed, Brazilian buyers should remain attentive to trade relations and product diversification, with greater use of lower concentration fertilizers as a strategy to mitigate costs,” concludes Pernías.