Soybeans and corn maintain downward bias with favorable weather

The good harvest in the United States, combined with the fall in the dollar and the resumption of purchases from China, sustained the recent fluctuations in soybean prices, but without indicating a firm upward trend. In corn, the advance of the second crop harvest in Brazil and high freight costs keep the market under pressure. The information is contained in the Analysis by the Grão Direto Specialist, released this Monday (7/7). Check it out:

How did the soybean market behave?

American harvest and favorable weather held up prices: The good progress of the harvest in the United States, with crops in satisfactory conditions and favorable weather, kept pressure on future soybean prices in Chicago despite the increases. The USDA report reinforced this scenario by indicating stocks above market expectations.

China resumes leading role in purchasing: the expectation of a resumption of Chinese purchases in the US boosted prices in the middle of the week.

Dollar: the dollar fell to its lowest level since August 2024, which put pressure on domestic soybean prices and signaled a new exchange rate trend in the short term.

In Chicago, the July 2025 soybean contract closed at US$10,56 per bushel, up 2,72% on the week. The March 2026 contract also rose, closing at US$10,76 per bushel, up 2,18%. The dollar fell 1,09%, closing the week at R$5,42. Despite the positive movement of the grain, the movement in the physical market was mixed, with some regions ending the week higher, while others, lower.

What to expect from the soybean market?

Fertilizers and exchange ratio: After the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, fertilizer prices fell significantly, reversing much of the previous increase. As a result, production costs tend to fall, promoting an improvement in the exchange rate between fertilizers and grains. This dynamic, by reducing cost pressure on farmers, is bearish for agricultural commodity prices.

Biofuels: Following the ceasefire in the Middle East and the drop in fertilizer prices, oil has given back much of its recent gains, impacting soybean oil more strongly due to its correlation with biodiesel. Still, uncertainty about future developments in the region keeps the market on alert, making soybean oil futures contracts especially sensitive to sudden fluctuations. In this scenario, producers should monitor potential windows of opportunity to sell, taking advantage of price spikes and implementing hedging strategies (futures contracts, options) to protect margins in the face of persistent volatility.

Exchange and soybeans: During the last day of the BRICS general meeting, former President Donald Trump threatened to apply additional tariffs of 10% to countries that adopt an “anti-American” stance. This increases the exchange rate risk for Brazil when negotiating with Russia and China. Although it is essential to maintain good trade relations with these markets, greater caution will be needed in soybean export operations to mitigate this threat.

Now is the time to pay attention to find windows of opportunity to sell soybeans. The market remains volatile and, for now, there are few fundamentals that point to a significant increase in prices. Therefore, in the coming days, prices may return to last week's highs.

How did the corn market behave?

Harvest progresses, but with pressure on prices: Even with delays due to rain, the gradual entry of second-crop corn into the market is putting pressure on prices. In many regions of the Central-West, current prices are already operating with negative margins for producers.

American harvest in line with expectations: The USDA report released earlier this week did not bring any significant surprises for corn, confirming that planted areas and stocks are within expectations. The favorable climate in the US continues to support good production prospects, limiting upward reactions in prices. In fact, it has been promoting declines.

Production cost on the radar with the new Safra Plan: The announcement of the 2025/26 Harvest Plan brought a record volume of R$594,4 billion in rural credit, but with higher interest rates. The change has caused concern among corn producers, who are already evaluating the impact on the costs of the next harvest in a scenario of tight margins.

In Chicago, the July 2025 corn contract closed at US$4,31 per bushel, up 3,36% on the week. On B3, the July 2025 contract fell 2,4%, closing at R$61,93 per bag. The decline was repeated in the physical market, with widespread declines.

What to expect from the corn market?

Freight and second crop corn: Last week, freight costs reached a new high and there is no sign of a decline. With the second corn harvest progressing and generating large volumes of supply, the law of supply and demand continues to put pressure on the price of the grain. At the same time, limited storage capacity tends to maintain or even further increase freight costs next week, putting pressure on producer margins.

North American harvest: Weather conditions remain favorable for the 2025/26 crop in the United States. The forecast for the next 10 days indicates regular rainfall and mild temperatures, which are essential for plant development. In addition, the Agricultural Belt drought monitor records ideal soil moisture levels throughout the territory, minimizing the risk of water stress and ensuring greater protection against possible dry periods.

With the second crop harvest gaining momentum and increasing logistics costs, coupled with a very positive scenario for production in the United States, corn continues to be on a downward trend this week. A reversal of the trend will depend on relevant news in monitoring the Brazilian and American harvests.