Soybean production is expected to fall in the 26/27 crop season in Mato Grosso.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) released new estimates this week for the state's main crops, indicating a decline in soybean supply and adjustments to the corn and cotton scenarios for the upcoming harvests.

For soybeans, the supply for the 2026/27 crop was estimated at 49,53 million tons, a decrease of 4,47% compared to the previous cycle. The decline is associated with lower projected production, reflecting uncertainties regarding the level of investment. Even so, the projected volume is the third largest in the institute's historical series.

Total demand was projected at 49,39 million tons (-3,54%), with 30,51 million tons destined for export (-4,98%). Ending stocks are expected to fall to 140 tons, a decrease of 78,46%.

The first crop projection indicates an area of ​​13,04 million hectares (+0,25%), with growth limited by squeezed margins, high costs, and more restricted credit. Productivity was estimated at 62,44 sacks per hectare, a decrease of 5,43%, due to climatic and phytosanitary uncertainties. The possibility of an El Niño event, with a probability close to 80% at the beginning of the cycle, could intensify the irregularity of rainfall in the state. Therefore, production was projected at 48,88 million tons (-5,19%).

In the market, caution regarding global supply supported prices. Soybean meal rose 1,85% in Chicago, while soybeans in Mato Grosso advanced 1,39% during the week, to R$ 103,68 per sack. The Cepea indicator also registered an increase of 1,20%.

Corn forecast increases.

For corn, Imea projected exports of 25 million tons in the 2024/25 crop year, a 5,04% increase over the previous cycle, despite a 3,85% downward revision compared to the previous report, due to the slower pace of shipments. To date, 23,86 million tons have already been exported. Factors such as the falling dollar, lower prices, and external issues influenced the performance.

In the 2025/26 crop year, exports are expected to reach 25,90 million tons (+3,60%). Domestic consumption continues to expand, driven by corn ethanol production and the animal feed industry, estimated at 18,91 million tons in the 2024/25 crop year (+15,93%) and 20,72 million tons in the 2025/26 crop year (+9,54%).

The corn acreage remained at 7,39 million hectares for 2025/26 (+1,83%), while productivity increased 1,81% compared to the previous month, to 118,71 sacks per hectare, favored by recent good weather conditions. As a result, production was estimated at 52,65 million tons. Even so, regions like the Southeast of the state require more rain, with a risk of water scarcity in the coming weeks.

In the international market, corn prices rose, with the CME contract increasing 2,25% to US$4,64 per bushel. The export parity also advanced 2,46%, following the recovery of the dollar.

Cotton supply falls, and demand for cotton rises.

For cotton, the supply of lint in the 2025/26 crop year was estimated at 3,45 million tons (-3,92%), driven by a 15,91% drop in production, projected at 2,52 million tons. Demand, on the other hand, is expected to grow by 1,02%, to 2,69 million tons, with exports projected at 2,04 million tons.

Ending stocks were estimated at 762,92 tons (-18,07%), with most already sold, but expected to be shipped only in the next cycle.

The cotton acreage was projected at 1,38 million hectares, a reduction of 11,11% compared to the previous harvest, reflecting tighter margins and higher costs. Conversely, productivity was revised upwards, reaching 297,69 arrobas per hectare (+2,34%), favored by more positive weather conditions. Cottonseed production was estimated at 6,14 million tons, a decrease of 16,04%.

In the market, prices also reacted: the cotton contract on ICE advanced 0,62%, while the Cepea indicator for cotton lint rose 1,41% and cottonseed increased by 1,26% in Mato Grosso.