Soybean prices rise and corn falls as harvest progresses

After weeks of decline, the soybean market attempted a recovery, driven by technical factors and strong demand from China, even amid the trade war. Corn, on the other hand, remains under pressure from the second crop harvest, which is progressing rapidly and increasing domestic supply. This is what Grão Direto's Expert Analysis indicates this Monday (July 21st). Check it out:

How did the soybean market behave?

Soybeans react after three-month minimum: After reaching a three-month low, soybean prices found technical support and began a strong upward movement, reversing the downward trend observed in previous weeks and rekindling the funds' appetite.

Chinese demand sustains Chicago despite pressured environment: Even with weekly shipments falling in the US due to the trade war, strong demand from China helped support soybean futures in Chicago. However, prices in reais for the new crop remain below last year's levels.

Dollar remains volatile amid trade tensions: The US currency fluctuated throughout the week, influenced by uncertainty surrounding the tariffs announced by the US and Brazil's attempt to delay retaliation. The result was an exchange rate marked by constant ups and downs.

In Chicago, the August 2025 soybean contract closed at US$10,27 per bushel, up 2,29% for the week. The March 2026 contract also rose, closing at US$10,65 per bushel, up 2,6%. The dollar rose 0,72%, closing the week at R$5,59. These positive movements favored the rise in soybean prices in the physical market, with price gains throughout the week.

What to expect from the soybean market?

Brazilian exports: Brazilian soybean exports jumped in July 25. Shipments are expected to range between 11,2 and 13,1 million tons, well above the 9,59 million tons expected in the same month in 2024. External demand is strong, driven primarily by China, our main buyer, and this helps support prices. As a result, many regions have had good sales opportunities, and this pace is expected to continue until the arrival of the American harvest.

25/26 harvest: Consulting firms are already projecting a 1 million-hectare increase in soybean acreage in Brazil for the next harvest. If confirmed, this could lead to production of between 175 and 180 million tons. This growth reinforces a scenario of high supply in the global market, which could ultimately put pressure on prices further down the line. This movement stems largely from producers' need to seek scale to offset tighter margins. With high costs and more stable soybean prices, the solution has been to plant more to maintain profitability. The point to be aware of is that this increase in acreage, combined with a bumper harvest in the United States, could put even more pressure on the market in the 25/26 harvest.

The market remains under pressure and requires attention to sales: We're almost at the start of the North American harvest, and there are already prospects for an increase in planted area in Brazil for the next season. This scenario puts pressure on prices, both in the spot market and in futures contracts.

How did the corn market behave?

Harvest progresses and puts pressure on prices: The second corn harvest has surpassed 50%, although it remains below the historical average. The entry of grain into the market maintains selling pressure, with weakened premiums and buyers taking advantage of the opportunity to replenish stocks at lower prices.

Large harvest and dry weather sustain supply: In both Brazil and the US, the growth of crops in good condition, favored by dry weather, reinforced expectations of high supply. Even with some occasional appreciation in futures, the scenario remains limited by oversupply fundamentals.

Logistics and ethanol drive the regional market: The increased demand for freight as the harvest progresses has driven up logistics costs in some regions. At the same time, the announcement of a billion-dollar investment in a new ethanol plant in Rio Verde, Goiás, could alter demand dynamics for the grain in the medium term.

In Chicago, the September 2025 corn contract closed at US$4,09 per bushel, up 3,28% for the week. On the B3 exchange, the September 2025 contract also rose, closing at R$65,45 per bag, up 2,43%. Despite the gains, the physical market was marked by mixed movements this week, with some regions closing higher and others lower.

What to expect from the corn market?

Corn harvest 2nd: The second crop harvest is progressing rapidly in Mato Grosso, which has already harvested over 77% of the area, with very good productivity, even with a delay compared to last year. This larger volume now reaching the market increases pressure on prices. Furthermore, freight costs are high due to logistical bottlenecks, which ultimately reduces premiums paid in the interior.

Exports: Corn exports slowed in July 25. The estimated shipments are 4,59 million tons, slightly below the July 24 figure. This highlights a loss of competitiveness of Brazilian corn in the global market, with US corn trading at more attractive prices. Therefore, buyers are stepping on the brakes and buying only what they need, waiting for the new US harvest to arrive.

Climate: The stable weather in South-Central Brazil has helped accelerate the second corn harvest and is expected to continue until the end of July. On the other hand, this lack of rain is already causing concern for the start of the next harvest, especially in regions that depend on soil moisture for planting.

With the harvest progressing and logistical pressure on grain flow, the market is unlikely to see significant gains in the short term. The trend remains bearish for next week.