The first planting projection for the 2023/24 summer harvest, released this week by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), of the State Secretariat for Agriculture and Supply, points to a small increase in the soybean area, while corn will have reduction of around 16%. Production may follow the same trend.
“This is the first reading of a possible scenario, but it could change when production is in the field, especially because we will be under the effect of the El Niño phenomenon, with a tendency for more rain and fewer droughts like the ones that took much of our production in recent years, particularly in the 21/22 harvest”, pondered the head of Deral, Marcelo Garrido.
El Niño is a climate event resulting from the abnormal warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean. In the Southern Region of the country, the tendency is for rainfall to intensify, higher than historical averages. Since June 2019, Brazil has not recorded weather characteristic of this phenomenon.
The main grain crops of the 1st harvest in Paraná 2023/24, also called the summer harvest, are expected to occupy just over 6,2 million hectares. In the previous cycle, they extended over 6,3 million hectares. Production, which was 26,5 million tons, is projected at 25,4 million tons in this first survey of the new harvest.
Soybean – The first soybean harvest in 2023/24 promises to have a very insignificant increase in area, going from 5.790 thousand hectares to 5.801 thousand hectares. Production tends to reduce by 2%, falling from 22,4 million tons to 21,9 million tons.
“The last harvest was exceptional”, pondered Deral agronomist Carlos Hugo Godinho. According to him, despite the increase, some producers stopped planting the oilseed in marginal areas, which were occupied by other crops, such as sugar cane, for example.
Corn – In corn, the area reduction in the first harvest should take place due to the low price of the product. In the last 12 months it dropped from R$75,00 per bag to R$45,00. “If the producer has the option, he migrates to another crop, mainly soybeans”, highlighted the crop analyst at Deral, Edmar Gervásio. The 379,1 thousand hectares occupied in the previous harvest should fall to 317 thousand hectares now. The projection is that 3,1 million tons will be produced against 3,8 million tons in 2022.
On the other hand, the current harvest – 2022/23 – is estimated to close at 17,8 million tons, of which 14 million from the second harvest and 3,8 million from the first. If implemented, it will be the second largest in history in Paraná, behind only the 2016/17 harvest, when just over 18 million tons were produced.
Bean – The projected trend for first-crop beans is a reduction of 3,5% in area, dropping from 116 thousand hectares to 112 thousand hectares. However, production can expand by 8,5%, from 199 thousand tons to 216 thousand tons. “It can recover a lot in productivity”, analyzed Deral economist Methodio Groxko.
So far, 4% of the area has been planted. There is nothing left in the field from the second 2022/23 harvest. Of the 288 thousand hectares planted, 465 thousand tons of beans were removed. At least 92% have already been sold. The price for colored beans is around R$190,00 per 60-kilo bag, while black beans cost R$223,00.
Wheat – The area of wheat sown in 2023 in Paraná is 1,41 million hectares, 14% higher than the 1,23 million hectares in 2022. So far, 13% have been harvested, generating a supply of 488 thousand tons. “Since 2008, such a high volume has not been harvested in August”, highlighted Carlos Hugo Godinho. In several crops, harvesting only started in September.
The volume even exceeds the monthly crushing capacity of Paraná, estimated at around 315 thousand tons. As a result, there was pressure on prices, which fell below R$60,00 on the over-the-counter market. “These are the lowest values offered to producers since August 2020”, said the agronomist responsible for the crop at Deral. The expectation is to harvest 4,5 million tons in Paraná.
French Fries, tomato e onion – Potatoes had a 5% reduction in the planted area in Paraná, dropping from 15,3 thousand hectares to 14,5 thousand hectares. The expectation of production in the 2023/24 harvest remains the same percentage, with a forecast of 454,5 thousand tons against 479,3 thousand tons in 2022/23.
Tomatoes maintained practically the same space of 2,4 thousand hectares, but production shows a tendency to increase by 3%, going from 144,9 thousand tons to 148,7 thousand tons. The area for onions shrank by 19% compared to last year, from 3,3 thousand hectares to 2,7 thousand hectares.
"It is a product that has been systematically reducing the production area, even though there is an increase in productivity”, pondered agronomist Paulo Andrade, from Deral. Production for the new harvest is projected at 94,4 thousand tons against 107,4 thousand tons in the previous cycle.
According to the horticultural crop analyst at Deral, the entire onion area is already planted. “It’s the first time in the last 15 years that this has happened in August,” said Paulo Andrade. In the case of tomatoes, it is also rare for 28% to be planted during this period. “For now the weather is helping, but there is always a risk if there is a late frost.”
Café – The coffee harvest for the 2022/23 harvest reached 82% of the area of 25,8 thousand hectares. However, it is late, as in previous years 90% would have already been harvested. One of the reasons is the non-uniform flowering, which lasted from August 2022 to January this year. The other is the lack of labor in coffee growing regions. “This is a worrying factor,” said economist Paulo Sérgio Franzini, a culture analyst at Deral.
The estimate is to harvest 41 thousand tons, which would yield 690 thousand bags of coffee. According to Franzini, sales are quite slow, due to the low prices charged by the market, around R$760 per bag. In previous years, between 15% and 20% would already be sold during this period. Now the index is at 5%.
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