Soybean and corn prices fall due to favorable weather in the US.

Soybean and corn prices fell last week, pressured by forecasts of rain and favorable temperatures in the US agricultural belt, a factor that reduced concerns about yield losses in crops. Despite the drop in Chicago, analysts believe the market remains sensitive to weather conditions during August, while exports, Chinese demand, the progress of the Brazilian harvest, and the macroeconomic scenario should continue to influence price formation in the coming days. Check out the full analysis prepared by Grainsights by Grão Direto.

How the soybean market behaved

Sharp drop: soybeans ended last week with a sharp correction on the CBOT. The most traded contract accumulated a 5,2% drop, pressured by forecasts of rain and favorable temperatures in the US Midwest, precisely during pod formation. On Wednesday, the price closed at US$11,9275 per bushel.

Good conditions for American crops: the USDA rated 63% of US crops as good or excellent, up from 66% the previous week, while 47% were already forming pods, above the average of 39%. In Brazil, Paranaguá fell from R$148,37 to R$144,91 per sack. The dollar near R$5,08 offered little support, given the estimated Brazilian production of 180,6 million tons.

The market fueled purchases: the drop in prices also stimulated buying. On Friday, Chinese state-owned companies acquired between 14 and 16 cargoes of soybeans from the United States, a volume close to 1 million tons. In Brazil, the dollar fluctuated during the week and closed near R$5,08.

According to Grainsights, the market intelligence arm of Grão Direto, the week saw a decline in the spot soybean contract in Chicago (Aug/26), which closed the week quoted at US$11,71 per bushel, a significant drop of 6,09%. The March/27 contract followed the same trend, showing a 4,59% decrease, closing at US$12,05 per bushel. This scenario propelled the FOB Santos Soybean Index (SPOT) to record levels, an exclusive Grainsights indicator, which experienced a significant 4,50% drop during the week, ending at R$146,16 per sack.

What to expect from the soybean market

Weather in the US: The global soybean market begins the week extremely sensitive to weather windows in the US agricultural belt. With the arrival of August, US crops enter the critical pod-filling phase, a crucial period for consolidating the productivity of the 2026/27 crop. Although the forecast of sporadic rainfall has recently led to declines in contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade, the occurrence of dry heat episodes in the coming weeks could reignite volatility and drive up international prices.

US Harvest and Projections: Price support is based on the tight supply and demand balance in the United States. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts a harvest of 120,7 million tons, maintaining ending stocks at around 310 million bushels and a stock-to-consumption ratio close to 7%. This is a tenuous ratio, which tends to be very reactive to information about losses. Therefore, since the margin for productivity losses is minimal, any negative fluctuation in yield per acre will directly reduce strategic reserves, preventing prolonged drops in grain prices in Chicago.

Exports and international relevance: On the international demand side, the attractiveness of Chinese purchases and the pace of US exports continue to support the market. In Brazil, port premiums remain firm, partially offsetting declines seen on the B3 and CBOT and preserving the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans.

Opportunities: In the Brazilian domestic environment, liquidity is expected to remain contained throughout this week, reflecting the cautious stance of producers in physical origination. Farmers' attention remains focused on managing costs for the 2026/27 crop and monitoring exchange rates. At the same time, logistical challenges persist, as the progress of the second corn crop harvest intensifies competition for space in warehouses and road transport, putting pressure on port premiums and requiring caution in setting spot prices. Daily variations in quotations and premiums can create specific opportunities for price fixing, making constant monitoring of market conditions essential to ensure profitability.

How the corn market behaved

Corn also fell on the CBOT: Corn also lost strength in Chicago, pressured by forecasts of favorable weather in the US corn belt. On Wednesday, the most active contract closed at US$4,7175 per bushel. The expectation of rain reduced fears of productivity losses, even with worsening crop conditions.

US crops: The USDA rated 63% of the corn as good or excellent, down from 67% the previous week. This indicates a slight deterioration in corn conditions, although development remains advanced. The market closely monitored this combination of productivity and weather, which increased the sensitivity of Chicago prices to changes in weather forecasts.

Progress in the Brazilian second-crop harvest: In the domestic market, the progress of the second-crop harvest increased the availability of corn and kept buyers more cautious. With a larger supply arriving at warehouses, negotiations occurred sporadically, while producers assessed prices and storage space. This scenario limited firmer price reactions in the physical market.

According to Grainsights, a market intelligence service from Grão Direto, spot corn in Chicago ended the week with a sharp drop of 5,17%. In Brazil, the B3 contract with the same reference followed the same trend, closing at R$69,20 per sack, representing a 1,96% decrease for the week. In the physical market, in the South Goiano region, prices closed the week at R$51,70 per sack.

What to expect from the corn market

Harvest progresses in Brazil: the harvest of the second corn crop in Brazil accelerates in this first week of August. With the harvest almost complete in Mato Grosso, the pace of work intensifies in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, favored by improved weather. The large influx of freshly harvested grain into the physical market increases the available supply and imposes the usual seasonal downward pressure on prices in inland markets and storage facilities.

International demand and prices: despite supply pressure from the second corn crop, the strong flow of exports acts as a key counterweight to contain sharper price decreases. Brazilian port schedules indicate that corn exports should reach 8,24 million tons in August. Meanwhile, climate concerns in the Northern Hemisphere and conflicts in the Black Sea region are increasing international demand for Brazilian raw materials, sustaining export parity at the ports.

Feed and ethanol markets: Domestically, sustained domestic consumption driven by the feed sector and the growth of corn ethanol provides additional support to prices. This balance between seasonal supply and strong demand is reflected in the B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange) and the physical market. The futures market signals a recovery in prices in the last quarter, driven by domestic industrial consumption.

Market positioning: Given this scenario, Brazilian producers are adopting a strategy of holding onto their lots, avoiding hasty negotiations during the peak of harvesting. With the second crop's production largely priced in, the direction of negotiations this week will depend on buyers' ability to replenish stocks and the performance of prices in Chicago. Occasional price increases at ports may represent suitable opportunities to lock in lots.

Macroeconomics and opportunities: In the macroeconomic scenario, the week beginning August 03, 2026, is marked by expectations surrounding the Copom meeting on Wednesday, accompanied by the release of the Focus Bulletin, which indicated the fifth consecutive drop in the inflation projection (IPCA at 5,03%) and an estimate of the Selic rate falling to 13,75% to 14,00% per year, while the dollar exchange rate remains projected at R$ 5,20. 

With exchange rate stability and fluctuations in the international energy market impacting port premiums and logistics costs in Brazil, it becomes essential for rural producers to remain attentive to market fluctuations and rigorously control their production costs.