Soybean and corn markets fluctuate with weather and politics

The soybean and corn markets have seen fluctuations in recent days, reflecting a combination of factors such as the advance of planting in the United States, trade tensions between China and the US, changes in biofuel policy and the confirmation of a case of bird flu in Brazil. While soybeans rose slightly with support from the exchange rate and expectations of exports, corn was pressured by the reduction in demand from poultry farming and the forecast of a bumper Brazilian harvest. Check out more information in this week's Grão Direto Expert Analysis. 

How did the soybean market behave?

Agreement between China and the USA: The statement between the two largest economies shook global markets, raising the prices of soybeans, oil and meal, due to expectations about demand for soybeans from the US, amid the planting of the 2025/26 harvest.

Biofuels policy: possible changes in the United States' biofuels policy, which could reduce demand for vegetable oils in the short term, combined with pressure from oil prices, exerted negative pressure on soybean prices in Chicago.

Planting American soybeans: Favorable weather and the accelerated pace of planting in the United States also put pressure on soybean prices in Chicago. Sowing, which progressed above average, increased expectations of a robust harvest.

In Chicago, the May 2025 soybean contract closed at US$10,51 per bushel, up slightly by 0,67% on the week. The March 2026 contract followed the same trend, closing at US$10,56 per bushel (+0,76%). The dollar remained stable, quoted at R$5,67 (+0,35%). In the physical market, soybean prices were heavily influenced by premiums at ports, reflecting the possible migration of demand to the US, with the trade agreement.

What to expect from the soybean market?

Brazil stands out in exports: According to Secex, Brazil has been recording record soybean exports, with 37,4 million tons shipped between January and April this year — an increase of 1,6% compared to the same period last year. This growth was mainly driven by the trade war between China and the US, which increased Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans. In April, the country reached the second highest volume ever recorded, with 15,3 million tons, and projections for May indicate the possibility of a new record, with shipments close to 16,5 million tons. If the US harvests less soybeans due to the reduction in area, Brazil could maintain its leading role

US Harvest: Soybean planting in the US has progressed rapidly, reaching 48% of the planned area by May 11, 14 percentage points above last year and 11 points above the average of the last five years. States such as Iowa (64%), Nebraska (62%) and Illinois (51%) are leading the pace. Around 17% of the areas have already shown emergence, exceeding the historical average. Despite the good progress, 23% of the area is still facing some drought conditions, especially in the north-central Midwest. The forecast indicates continued rainfall, which may improve the water situation, although it may also cause occasional delays in planting. Below-average temperatures may slow down the initial development of crops. This scenario is starting to raise doubts regarding the initial production expectation, but there is no reason for undue concern.

Dollar falling: The exchange rate remains under pressure from internal and external factors. On the international scene, the prospect of high interest rates in the US and President Donald Trump's trade stance tend to maintain the dollar's volatility. On the domestic front, fiscal uncertainties persist, despite the Finance Minister's signals regarding compliance with the fiscal target, which contributes to the currency's instability. Even so, the dollar may continue to fall and break the R$5,60 level.

The consistent progress of planting and emergence of the soybean crop in the United States, combined with the improvement in climate conditions in important producing regions, contributes to a scenario of greater pressure on Brazilian soybean prices, which could be exacerbated by the possible continued decline in the dollar.

How did the corn market behave?

Supply and Demand Report: For the next harvest, US corn production is estimated at 430,55 million tons. Exports are expected to reach 72,8 million tons, surpassing those of the 2024/25 harvest. The department increased the expectation for the Brazilian harvest to 131 million tons and to 53 million in Argentina.

North American harvest: The planting pace continued to accelerate, with planting reaching 62% of the area, above the historical average. The USDA also reported that 28% of the crops had already germinated, generating excellent expectations for development given the favorable climate.

Case of bird flu: The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA) has confirmed the presence of bird flu on a commercial farm located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The case has alerted the market with a direct and immediate impact on poultry exports.

In Chicago, corn closed the week at US$4,43 per bushel, down 0,45%. In Brazil, on B3, the corn contract for July 2025 also fell, closing at R$62,05 per bag (-3,33%). In the physical market, corn prices continued to fall, pressured by weakness in the futures markets.

What to expect from the corn market?

Impacts of Bird Flu: The confirmation of the first case of bird flu on a commercial farm in Brazil led to the temporary suspension of chicken meat exports to important markets, such as China, the European Union, Argentina, Mexico, Chile and Uruguay, with China blocking purchases for 60 days. It is estimated that up to 20% of Brazilian monthly exports will be impacted during this period. Since the poultry chain is a major consumer of corn for feed, the reduction in exports and poultry production should reduce demand for corn, putting downward pressure on chicken and egg prices in the short term. If the disease is controlled and the embargo lasts for about two months, the impact is likely to be temporary and isolated. However, if bird flu spreads, the effects could be more severe and long-lasting, harming producers.

North American harvest: As of May 11, 62% of the U.S. corn area had been planted, up 22 percentage points in one week, 15 points ahead of last year and 6 points above the average of the last five years, with Iowa (76%), Nebraska and Minnesota (above 73%) standing out. About 30% of the area is still facing drought, especially in the north-central Corn Belt, despite recent rains that have improved some regions. The forecast indicates continued rains in the Corn Belt, benefiting dry areas, but could delay planting in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana, with below-average temperatures and the risk of isolated frosts in the north, with no widespread damage expected.

USA vs China vs Brazil: The international corn market promises to remain turbulent in the coming months, with the relationship between the US, China and Brazil standing out. According to the USDA, the United States sold 2,75 million metric tons of corn for the 2025/26 harvest, the highest volume recorded for this period in three years. This number is especially notable due to the lack of significant purchases from China so far, a country that historically accounts for a significant share of US exports. The situation is further complicated by Brazil, whose second corn crop, heavily geared towards exports, is expected to grow 11% this season, with the harvest picking up pace in the coming weeks.

With the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil and the possible reduction in demand for corn, caused by the slowdown in exports due to the detection of avian flu, the trend is for corn prices to fall. In this scenario, producers need to be vigilant in order to take advantage of the best sales opportunities.