Soybean, corn and cotton prices decline in Mato Grosso

The agricultural market ended the week with falling prices for soybeans, corn, and cotton in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso, reflecting a scenario of strong international volatility and strategic moves in South America. Data released by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) in its weekly bulletins on September 29th show that the main agricultural products and co-products were pressured by external and internal factors.

Soybeans: Price Retraction and Impact of Argentina

Soybean oil in Chicago fell 3,78% to close at US$49,84/lb, amid uncertainty from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regarding biofuel targets. Soybean meal also continued to decline, falling 2,66% to an average of US$277,66/t.

The movement was intensified by the temporary suspension of Argentina's export tariffs, which increased the country's competitiveness and redirected Chinese demand to the Argentine market. Despite this, the $7 billion sales threshold was reached in just two days, quickly ending the measure.

In Brazil, Mato Grosso followed the negative trend. Soybean oil fell 0,89% this week, to R$6.515,13/t, while soybean meal fell 3,05% to R$1.489,58/t. Soybean grain prices in the state fell 3,22%. The export premium in Santos also fell 6,47%.

Even so, planting is progressing at a rapid pace: as of September 26, 5,97% of the area planned for the harvest had already been sown, an increase of 5,42 percentage points in the weekly comparison.

In the US, the Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that 19% of the area had been harvested as of September 28, 5 points below the same period in 2024. The current estimate is 17,05 million tons, 1,51% lower than last year.

Corn: support in the domestic market, but decline in exports

Corn prices showed mixed performance. In Mato Grosso, the average price rose 0,52% to R$44,50/sac, supported by strong industrial demand. However, the price differential between the state and Chicago fell 3,81% to R$-8,76/sac.

At CME Group, prices fell 0,28% to R$53,26/sc, reflecting concerns about the productivity of the North American harvest. In Brazil, the export parity for July/26 fell 0,63%, while in Campinas, São Paulo, the grain closed at R$64,42/sc, a drop of 1,28%.

The pace of sowing for the first 25/26 crop continues apace. According to Conab, 20,8% of the estimated area has already been planted, a 6,1 percentage point increase this week and well above the average for the last five harvests. The South of the country is experiencing the fastest pace, with Paraná (44%), Santa Catarina (35%), and Rio Grande do Sul (66%) standing out.

Cotton: supply puts pressure on cotton prices

Cotton prices also fell in both international and domestic terms. In New York, the October/25 contract closed at US$64,12/lb, a 2,18% drop for the week and a 12,44% drop compared to September 2024. In Brazil, the lint fell to R$113,63/lb, a 10,10% drop on the same basis.

The pressure comes from both the global surplus and the arrival of the new harvest on the Mato Grosso market. Despite the short-term decline, co-products show the opposite trend: cottonseed closed in September at R$914,74/t, up 53,57% compared to 2024, driven by increased demand for oil production and the increase in biodiesel blending in diesel. Cottonseed oil also appreciated 35,48% in one year, trading at R$5.519,89/t.

With the harvest completed in Mato Grosso (100%), producers are now turning their attention to the next cycle, which begins in December. The scenario of low prices and higher costs could reduce planting intentions for the 25/26 harvest.