SP wheat harvest is expected to be maintained in 2025

The outlook for the 2025 wheat harvest in São Paulo is that the cultivated area will remain the same, although some cooperatives indicate a reduction due to the migration to other crops, such as sorghum and corn, due to production costs. However, producers continue to invest in the cereal, driven by demand from the state's milling industries and the rapid commercialization of the grain. The scenario was discussed at a meeting of the Wheat Sector Chamber of São Paulo, promoted by the Wheat Industry Union of the State of São Paulo (Sindustrigo).

“There are several crop options, but wheat remains attractive, as there is constant demand and little stock available for mills,” explained José Reinaldo Oliveira, vice president of the Wheat Sector Chamber. He pointed out that climate factors still bring uncertainty, but there is optimism regarding the productivity of the next harvest. If conditions are favorable, with regular rainfall and adequate temperatures, São Paulo could recover production levels seen in previous years.

“If we have a neutral climate, productivity can be high, ensuring good profitability for the producer. Even with areas being allocated to other crops, wheat remains competitive within this mix, offering economic security to the farmer,” Oliveira assessed.

Remotely, the president of the Wheat Sector Chamber, Nelson Montagna, reinforced the need to expand state production. "There is a market and demand for wheat from São Paulo. We need to focus on quality and believe in the growth of the sector, which will have better years and others that are more difficult, but the trend is for progress," he summarized.

Beginning and end of war impact the international wheat market

Safras & Mercado wheat market analyst Élcio Bento, when presenting a market overview of the sector, highlighted that global movements directly impact prices in Brazil. "We are passengers on the Argentine train, which follows the tracks of the North American stock exchanges," he compared. Regarding the trade war between China and the United States, he recalled that, in 2018, tariffs on American wheat drastically reduced exports to the Chinese market, and a new tax could benefit Argentina. "If the US faces restrictions, Argentine wheat could gain ground in China," he said.

Bento also addressed the impacts of the war in Ukraine, pointing out the possibility of normalizing the flow of wheat through the Black Sea, which could put pressure on global prices. "In the short term, this would bring some relief to the market. However, for this harvest, the impact should be limited," he assessed. He also highlighted the competitiveness of Argentine wheat compared to American products and the need for imports to meet demand in São Paulo.

The agenda for the day included updates on the São Paulo scenario

Apta scientific researcher and research advisor for the São Paulo Department of Agriculture and Supply, Raquel Nakazato Pinotti, represented the coordinator of the SAA Sector Chambers, José Carlos de Faria Cardoso Júnior. She highlighted the importance of a realistic tax proposal for wheat in São Paulo. "We need to understand the specificities of wheat in order to build a tax policy that does not depend on political mandates. Support for production must be a priority, ensuring that producers have the conditions to move forward," she stated. She also reinforced the need for greater support from mayors for the production chain, promoting actions in conjunction with the SAA.

The meeting also presented an overview of planting in the state, with reports from the largest cooperatives in São Paulo on producers' projections for wheat production, in addition to research on new cultivars and alternatives to mitigate phytosanitary problems, including a study by Apta on the use of Tereoil, a turpentine compound for disinfecting contaminating fungi. Biotrigo Genética also shared an overview of the performance of the main varieties grown in the state.