São Paulo grain production is estimated at 10,2 million tons

São Paulo's grain production in the 2021/22 cycle is estimated at 10,27 million tons, a volume 18,5% higher than that harvested in the previous harvest, according to data released this month by the Economic Department of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo. Paulo (FAESP), based on a survey by the National Supply Company (Conab).

According to the survey, the planted area should total 2,5 million hectares this harvest, compared to 2,4 million hectares planted in the previous one, an increase of 4,15%. In terms of productivity, a gain of 13,8% is estimated, going from 3.613 kg/ha to 4.111 kg/ha.

“FAESP, however, highlights that this survey does not yet quantify the impacts of adverse climate events on crops in São Paulo, which have occurred since December last year. The field surveys carried out by Conab take place well in advance of the publication date of its report, so that the impacts on crops can be published one or even two months after the events that occurred. This lag, therefore, suggests waiting for the next surveys for more assertive estimates regarding the expected results for crops in São Paulo”, highlights the president of the Federation, Fábio de Salles Meirelles.

Compared to the previous survey, there was an increase in cotton seed production estimates. Previously estimated at 13.300 tons, 17.800 tons are now forecast, a volume 33,8% higher than estimated in the last survey and 56,1% higher than that harvested in the 2020/21 harvest.

Peanut production in the first harvest was also reevaluated, indicating a growth of 14,7% in relation to the results of the previous harvest. Thus, in the 2021/22 cycle, a volume of 636.800 tons of this crop should be harvested, compared to 555.000 obtained in the last cycle.

According to the survey, the estimates for the production of corn in the first harvest and soybeans remain as per the last survey: 1,84 million tons of corn and 4,5 million tons of soybeans. These volumes represent maintenance of the production level, in relation to that produced in the previous harvest.

Data from the State of São Paulo:

Brazil

The same Conab harvest survey reduces the estimate for Brazilian grain production in the 2021/22 harvest. The previous assessment was 291,07 million tons, while production is now estimated at 284,39 million tons, a volume 2,4% lower than predicted in the last survey, however, still 12,5% ​​higher than that obtained in 2020/21 harvest

FAESP highlights that, although this survey showed a drop in production, it is believed that the next surveys will bring even less positive estimates, given the more assertive quantification of the impacts of drought on crops in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Mato Grosso of the South and São Paulo.

It is also worth remembering that forecasts for second and third harvest crops are made using statistical methodologies, given the uncertainty, at this moment, about the area to be sown with these crops.