São Paulo grain harvest is estimated at 10 million tons

The second survey prepared by the Economic Department of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo (FAESP), with data from the National Supply Company (Conab), indicates an estimate of 10 million tons for the São Paulo grain harvest 2022/2023 . The number released in November is 2,5% higher than that harvested in the previous harvest (9,8 million tons) and represents a drop of 2,9% compared to the first survey, which indicated production of 10,33 million tons . The area planted with grains in the state is expected to grow by 0,8%, totaling 2,5 million hectares, while for productivity, valued at 4.012 kg/ha, a gain of 1,7% is predicted.

“Despite there being a drop compared to the first survey, the number is still higher than in the last harvest, which makes us optimistic. Furthermore, productivity continues to rise, another positive news for grain producers in São Paulo”, says the president of FAESP, Fábio de Salles Meirelles.

The drop compared to the first estimate is due to negative expectations for the first harvest of beans and corn. For beans, there was a considerable reduction in the planted area (-22,8%), mainly due to competition with more profitable crops, such as soybeans. Therefore, a production of 96,2 thousand tons is expected for the first bean harvest, a volume 16,3% lower than that harvested in 2021/22. In the consolidated of the three harvests, 167,6 thousand tons are forecast (a drop of 9,4%).

Summer corn has also been losing space to soybeans, so producers have given preference to off-season cultivation. Given this scenario, the estimate is a loss of 26,5% in area with first harvest production, with 246,3 thousand hectares allocated for this crop in the state. Production was assessed at 1,43 million tons, registering a drop of 28,5%.

The production of safrinha corn is expected to exceed the last harvest by 18,6%, with an estimated harvest of 2,77 million tons. In total for the two harvests, São Paulo's corn production should total 4,2 million tons (-3,1% compared to the previous cycle).

The positive highlight is soybeans, with production valued at 4,5 million tons, indicating growth of 7,6% and a new record harvest for the state. The positive result is due to the 4,6% increase in the area planted with soybeans, estimated at 1,27 million hectares, and the 2,9% gain in productivity, estimated at 3.536 kg/ha.

Winter crops are on their way to completion, with an expected production of 312,3 thousand tons (an increase of 18,2% compared to the 2021/22 harvest), of which 307,4 thousand tons of wheat (an increase of 20,7%) and 4,9 thousand tons of triticale (drop of 49,5%).

Brazil

In relation to data from all over Brazil, Conab's second survey for the 2022/23 harvest indicates a 15,5% growth in grain production, compared to the results of the previous cycle. The estimated volume of 313 million tons of grains is based on the expectation of expansion of the productive area, valued at 76,8 million hectares (+3,2%), but also the 12% gain in productivity, projected at 4.075 kg/ha. If estimates come true, 2022/23 will record a new record grain harvest in Brazil.

But it must be highlighted that projections at the beginning of the harvest, carried out while the areas are being prepared and with plantings still in the initial phase, make use of statistical methods and, therefore, do not accurately reflect what is happening in the field. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the next surveys for more assertive estimates of national grain production.

The main highlight of this survey is soybeans, with an estimated production of 153,5 million tons, 22,3% or 28 million tons higher than the 2021/22 harvest. For the planted area, the projection is for an increase of 4,2%, totaling 43,2 million hectares with oilseeds in this cycle. It will be the largest soybean harvest recorded in the country, if projections are confirmed.

Another highlight is corn production in the first and second harvests, both with expected growth of 12,5% ​​compared to last season's results, totaling 28,2 million tons and 96,3 million tons, respectively. In the consolidated of the three corn harvests, the expectation is that 126,4 million tons will be harvested, an increase of 12% or 13,6 million tons compared to 2021/22.

The estimated planting area for rice and beans is expected to fall by 6,2% and 2,7%, respectively, resulting in a drop in the production of these grains. For rice, 10,6 million tons (-1,4%) are expected to be harvested, while 2,9 million tons (-3%) are expected for beans.

The 2022 winter harvests, close to completion, should result in 11,3 million tons, a volume 21% higher than the previous season. Of this total, 9,5 million tons correspond to wheat (+23,7%) and 1,2 million tons to oats (+2,8%).