São Paulo's wheat harvest is expected to reach 400 tons in 2025

The Wheat Sector Chamber of the State of São Paulo held its third and final meeting of the year on Thursday morning (16). The meeting took place at the Castrolanda Cooperative's Itaberá I Warehouse and was broadcast online on Sindustrigo's YouTube channel. The event focused on analyzing the outlook for the 2025 harvest, marked by significant volume and superior quality of wheat harvested in the state.

During the meeting, Nelson Montagna, president of the Wheat Sector Chamber, presented the updated projection for the São Paulo harvest. "Based on the data we have so far, the harvest is expected to be very close to 400 tons, above the 350 indicated in preliminary statistics. The projection is positive not only in volume but also in quality, which is among the best in recent years," he explained, highlighting the strong performance of dryland areas.

The change in outlook throughout the year was attributed to favorable weather conditions. For Montagna, the weather was crucial in consolidating the current season's good results. "Our initial forecast was for a smaller harvest. I had already mentioned, at the last Chamber meeting, that I expected one of the best harvests in recent times, and this is proving to be true. The weather was excellent, which contributed to higher quality compared to recent years and positively impacted productivity," he emphasized.

Sindustrigo president Max Piermartiri, who also attended the meeting, emphasized the importance of the combination of technology and climate in crop performance. "We had a very positive coincidence: the genetic evolution of the cultivars coincided with extremely favorable weather conditions for wheat cultivation. As a result, we achieved high productivity and well-above-average quality in São Paulo's crops," he explained.

Piermartiri also highlighted São Paulo's strategic role in the national wheat supply chain: "The most important thing to emphasize is that São Paulo has a very solid wheat supply chain, which encompasses production, supply, milling, flour processing, and food production, with a level of organization and professionalism that is rare. Few places in the world bring together a production and consumption region so closely as São Paulo. This represents a major competitive advantage for the state."

Global recovery scenario and internal challenges

On the international stage, the wheat market is experiencing a period of recovery. Global production is expected to reach 816 million tons in 2025, with Europe's performance standing out. Despite this, Brazil is heading in the opposite direction, with a smaller harvest and greater dependence on imports.

CJ Internacional representative Douglas Araújo explained that the country's planted area has been reduced, impacting national production. "In Brazil, we're producing less wheat this year, mainly because the planted area was smaller. In terms of productivity, the highlight is the Central-West region, especially Minas Gerais," he explained.

Although Rio Grande do Sul is expected to maintain a significant export volume, the country remains dependent on imported wheat to meet demand. "Brazil is a sleeping giant in wheat production. It can produce much more than it does today, especially in winter crops," warned Araújo, citing the country's advances in technological innovation, particularly cultivation in the Cerrado region.

"In this region, we can use techniques such as overseeding wheat into corn crops, broadcast seeding (by machine or airplane), and even flooding systems. After the corn harvest, the wheat harvest begins quickly, with a cycle of approximately 75 days. Wheat piggybacks on the previous crop and can generate very high yields," he explained.

Despite being a benchmark in consumption and milling, São Paulo still faces an imbalance between production and demand. Regional demand is around 3 million tons per year, while milling reaches approximately 1,8 million tons. Local production is estimated at around 400 tons.

This scenario reinforces the dependence on imports and the importance of regional logistics. "São Paulo has significant consumption and needs to rely on the foreign market. The Port of São Sebastião can be an important complementary route to guarantee the state's wheat supply," stated Araújo.

Research evaluates wheat origin and perception of quality

During the meeting, the results of the "Tracking – Origin of Members' Wheat" survey, now in its third consecutive year, were also presented. The survey aimed to map the total volume of wheat purchased within the state by Sindustrigo members and compare the perceived quality of wheat from São Paulo and Argentina.

The initiative reinforces the entity's commitment to traceability, the valorization of regional production and the continuous improvement of the wheat chain in São Paulo.