Research shows that 92% of ethanol comes from new sugarcane areas in Brazil

According to data from Datagro, global ethanol production grew 3,6% in 2021. Brazil is currently the second largest producer of this fuel, which, by generating less emission of polluting gases into the atmosphere, rivals electric cars in the world. fight for a car that is more sustainable. When trying to understand how “green” ethanol really is, research by Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) used satellite monitoring to create an economic model, based on data, capable of analyzing the use of land intended for sugarcane agricultural activities. sugar.

With regard to land use, Marcelo Sant'Anna, researcher at EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finance (FGV/EPGE), explains that there are two ways to increase sugarcane production: the first is to replant with more frequently, and the second is to expand this plantation in new areas. “Our study found that when we increase production in Brazil, only 8% of the new ethanol comes from sugar cane resulting from a greater intensification of the replanting process. The other 92% come from new areas”, introduced the professor.

At the head of the project, Sant'Anna contextualizes that the demand for fuel has been increasing in recent years, as well as the need to reduce damage to the environment. “In this scenario, there is already numerous research that analyzes the carbon cycle and net emissions in the process of producing ethanol. However, what this study proposed was to draw attention to the consequences related to land use, since the expansion of sugar cane to produce biofuel will be expanded into areas that can be used for another type of production.”

Sant'Anna highlights that these plantations that go beyond the margins of their areas can enter forests and forests around the country, in addition to taking up space for other agricultural crops, such as soybean plantations and various foods. “In this research we identified that 20% of these new areas were originally forests, which implies deforestation to produce the plant that originates biofuel. Another 70% correspond to areas that were either pasture or other crops, such as corn, wheat, etc.”

The model created allows us to analyze where these new areas are being expanded and what is happening with crops other than sugarcane. “Currently it is cheaper to expand new areas than to intensify the replanting of existing ones. As most of the expansion of production takes place in new areas, it is essential to understand the determinants of this process to formulate public policies”, said Sant'Anna.

Technology and statistics

To adjust this economic model, the study used satellite images from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), which mapped all sugarcane growing areas in Brazil, with more than 1 million points on the map, which were followed for more than 10 years. The data monitors not only planting on new land, but also replanting in existing cultivation areas.

“This study provides references for the discussion about how green sugarcane really is in terms of carbon emissions. If we look at how this increase in production occurs along the supply curve, we can better understand the impacts of ethanol promotion policies. As it is a semi-perennial plant, sugar cane when planted will generate a lower yield annually, until it reaches the point where it needs to be replanted. There is a channel, therefore, through this replanting process that allows yield to be increased. However, what we found is that, despite being present, this intensification mechanism is much less relevant than the expansion into new areas of culture”, adds the researcher.

Through this new dynamic model adjusted to Brazilian data, he believes it is possible to carry out experiments in public policies by investigating how sugarcane production increases. “If ethanol production is coming from new sugarcane plantation areas, it raises an alert for environmental issues, or for possible interference in the production of other agricultural commodities.”

Sant'Anna points out that the scenario needs a more careful look, as answering the question “how green is sugar cane” depends fundamentally on what happens to the areas used to produce this plant. “Our role is not to say whether ethanol is good or bad, but rather, to understand the entire production cycle and the real impact of this fuel, which is considered green”, concluded the researcher.