Reduced soybean stock may maintain firm values ​​in 2021

Same with the low rainfall at the beginning of sowing for the 2020/21 harvest, the occurrences of rain in more satisfactory volumes since the last decade of October/20 generate expectations of record production in Brazil, estimated at 134,5 million tons by Conab (+7,7%) and 133 million tons by USDA (+5,6%). 

Yet Thus, the stock/final consumption ratio could be the lowest in the last nine seasons, which can support domestic prices of soybeans and derivatives throughout 2021. This is because, in 2020, soybean farmers took advantage of the high price levels and negotiated more than half of the 20/21 harvest, according to research carried out by Cepea. There are also expectations of an increase in demand domestic, especially by the livestock sector, in the case of soy.

In addition In addition, the demand for soybean oil for biodiesel production should continue high, challenging food sector industries in terms of food supply. coproduct. It is worth highlighting that, for the first time, industrial consumption Brazilian soybean oil (3,9 million tons) should surpass the use food (3,8 million tons).

Despite positive perspectives, it is important to highlight that the highest cost operational of the acquisition of inputs – especially fertilizers – can limit producer margins in 2021. Additionally, exports may slow down, as China is expected to acquire a greater share of soybeans from the United States States, motivated by the trade agreement between both countries.