Record soybean production in 2025 consolidates Brazilian leadership.

The year 2025 was marked by climate concerns in South America, a factor that influenced prices throughout the period. In Brazil, despite a record national harvest, Rio Grande do Sul faced significant losses, further limiting the supply of soybeans last year. On the other hand, most Brazilian states recorded favorable or even record productivity. This is according to the StoneX Market Intelligence team. 

In Argentina, weather issues also affected production potential, but the country managed to harvest a robust crop without major threats to supply. Globally, with the 24/25 harvest consolidated, production exceeded consumption, resulting in increased stocks and limiting significant price increases.

Global demand for soybeans continues to grow annually, albeit in a more predictable way. Production is keeping pace with this growth, and although the weather can bring surprises, recent years have not seen significant crop failures that would negatively impact the sector's balance sheet.

In the international arena, trade tensions between China and the US were highlighted, culminating in agreements that restored the flow of exports after mutual tariffs. China concentrated its purchases on the record Brazilian harvest of 24/25, importing more than 85 million tons. With the agreement signed in October 2025, the forecast is for the acquisition of 12 million tons of US soybeans by February 2026 and 25 million tons annually over the next three years, volumes similar to those practiced before the escalation of trade tensions.

Outlook for the sector in 2026

For the 25/26 cycle, projections remain positive, with Brazil heading towards a new production record and Argentina maintaining favorable results, even with a reduction in planted area compared to the previous year. In the United States, soybeans lost ground to corn, with a 7% reduction in planted area, totaling 32,86 million hectares. Even so, the estimated production was robust, reaching 116 million tons, with a record average yield of 3,56 tons per hectare.

The global scenario continues with production exceeding consumption, although the projected difference for 2026 should be smaller. This keeps inventories high and limits the possibility of significant price increases.

Despite Brazil's potential to expand production and exports, the growth rate of Chinese imports is no longer as rapid as in previous years. With tighter margins in the Chinese pork industry and a less intense economic pace, doubts linger about Chinese appetite for soybeans. China remains the main market, but no other country is emerging to take over the prominent role it held until the middle of the last decade.