Record harvest increases pressure on coffee prices.

The progress of the harvest of a large coffee crop in Brazil should maintain pressure on Arabica and Robusta prices in the coming months. This trend could gain strength with the entry of coffees from other origins into the international market, increasing global availability and contributing to the replenishment of stocks. This assessment is contained in the Rabobank Agroinfo August 2026 report.

Between the beginning of the year and August, coffee prices fell on international exchanges. During that period, Arabica coffee dropped from US$3,57 per pound to US$3,37/lb, a decrease of 5,6%. Robusta coffee fell from US$4.132 to US$3.816 per ton, a decline of 7,6%.

According to the bank, the market underwent a sharp correction during the first half of the year, followed by a partial recovery in the third quarter. Arabica coffee showed greater volatility and responded more intensely to market movements than Robusta.

Despite the accumulated drop, several factors helped to support prices. Among them is the delay in the Arabica harvest in Brazil, which temporarily slowed the entry of new volumes into the market. Strong demand for Robusta also contributed to supporting prices, a trend evidenced by the growth in Brazilian exports of this variety.

Exports show different performance between Arabica and Robusta.

From January to July, Brazil shipped 20,7 million bags of coffee, a volume 6,4% lower than that recorded in the same period of the previous year. However, performance varied among varieties. In July, Brazilian exports of green Arabica coffee totaled 1,8 million bags, a decrease of 8,7% compared to the same month in 2025.

Meanwhile, shipments of green robusta coffee reached 851 bags in the month, an increase of 84,1% compared to July of last year.

Rabobank also draws attention to a disconnect between prices traded on international exchanges and the values ​​practiced in the Brazilian physical market. According to the analysis, the fluctuations in futures contracts were not fully passed on to the prices received by producers.

Rain can affect the quality of coffee.

In addition to production volume, weather conditions during harvest are another factor of concern for the market. Brazil recorded rainfall above the historical average, especially in July, hindering the progress of work in some regions.

Part of the harvested batches were affected by rainfall during the drying process, which may compromise the quality of the beans. There were also cases of fruits being knocked down by the rain, leaving the coffee beans in contact with the ground.

These conditions can harm the physical appearance of the beans and reduce the potential quality of the beverage. Therefore, although the Brazilian harvest contributes to increasing the total supply, the availability of higher-quality coffees may be more limited.

Price pressure is expected to continue.

Over the next few months, the market is expected to monitor the entry of Brazilian production and the arrival of coffee from other origins into international trade. The combination of these volumes tends to increase global availability and exert additional pressure on prices.

On the other hand, potential quality losses caused by rainfall could limit the supply of higher-quality coffees. In this scenario, Rabobank points to the possibility of widening price differentials between higher-quality lots and lower-quality coffees.

Thus, the market may shift from a scenario of more restricted supply to an environment of greater availability, but with distinct behaviors among the different types and standards of coffee.