Record harvest in the US brings negative bias to corn prices.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) January report raised its estimate for the country's corn production to 432,4 million tons, up from 425,5 million tons the previous month, driven by a record average yield of 11,7 tons per acre. According to Itaú BBA, the increased supply is putting more pressure on corn prices in the short term.

“The crop figures presented by the USDA consolidated a predominantly bearish bias for corn, with the confirmation of a bumper crop in the United States and a sharp increase in stocks, reinforcing a scenario of pressure on prices in the short term and increasing the need for producers and agribusinesses to adjust their margin protection strategies,” says Francisco Queiroz, specialist at Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting.

The ending US inventory increased by 9,8%, reaching 56,6 million tons, the third highest volume in the historical series. Exports remained at 81,3 million tons. The increase in production in the United States contributed to a greater balance in the global supply and demand picture, raising the ending stock for the 2025/26 crop year, although at a lower level than the previous season.

In Brazil, the development of the first crop remained positive thanks to the rains recorded in December. The return of rainfall favored the recovery of areas in Minas Gerais. In Maranhão, Piauí, Bahia, and Goiás, the crops showed a recovery after the period of water stress. In Rio Grande do Sul, the harvest began with favorable productivity prospects.

Nevertheless, the January rains will be crucial in confirming the expected production in the country, since about 50% of the crops are in the reproductive phase.

For the second crop, the pace of fertilizer sales remains in line with the average in Mato Grosso, Paraná, and Mato Grosso do Sul, indicating a favorable outlook for planting in these states. However, in Goiás, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais, the acquisition of inputs for the 2026 crop is delayed, making planting decisions less clear due to the delay in soybean cultivation. Decisions in these regions will depend on the planting window and the evolution of weather conditions in the coming weeks.