The heavy rains in October had an impact mainly on crops in the south of Paraná. In the North region, where most of the main crops for the 2022/2023 harvest are harvested, there are no significant records of losses to date. The information is in the Subjective Harvest Forecast (PSS) released today (26/10) by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), of the Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply.
In the southern region of the state, the impact was noticed especially in the production of winter cereals for the 2022/2023 harvest, such as wheat and barley. According to Deral, these cereals had significant declines in productivity. In the case of wheat, the production estimate highlighted in this month's report reduced by 300 thousand tons compared to the forecast released in September. Now, production is estimated at 3,86 million tons. The reduction in potential was reflected in prices.
In the North, in general, crops are in good condition. This is the case of cassava and sugar cane, for example, which already have approximately 89% of the areas harvested, and more than 90% of the areas in good condition. “This shows a situation that has not been critical for the North of the State so far, despite the heavy rains in October”, says Deral agronomist Carlos Hugo Godinho.
The economist and acting head of Deral, Larissa Nahirny, highlights that, despite the reduction in winter cereal production, the 22/23 harvest achieved a good performance, totaling 45,9 million tons. “Likewise, the prospects for the 2023/2024 cycle are good, if we have good weather conditions, as so far soybeans and corn have not shown significant changes in their productive potential.”
In crops from the 2023/2024 harvest, more problems were also recorded in crops in the South of the state, while the North region suffered practically no impacts. “However, the loss data has not yet been quantified in this report”, adds Godinho.
In the North region, around 81% of irrigated rice is planted and 100% of crops are in good condition, as is sericulture. In the South, where important crops such as beans are concentrated, the situation is less positive. Around 79% of beans are planted in the region, with 83% of crops in good condition, 17% in average condition and 1% in poor condition, mainly in the União da Vitória region. According to Deral technicians, this reduction in quality may require some producers to replant to recover crops, or even stop producing in these areas, which could result in loss of productivity.
The wheat harvest estimate was cut again in October. Deral figures indicate that 2023 million tons will be produced in 86 in an area of 1,41 million hectares, which was 84% harvested. Comparatively, this volume is 17% lower than the initial potential, of 4,6 million tons and approximately 300 thousand tons lower than the September estimate.
According to Deral, diseases were decisive for the drop in productivity, in addition to the excess rainfall in October, which contributed to the failure to achieve better productivity. In addition to the drop in volume produced, there was a loss in quality.
“With recurring rains and few days of sun, few producers were able to harvest wheat with ideal field humidity, a factor that resulted in grains with more restricted applications by the milling industry, or even wheat that will be used for animal feed” , says Deral agronomist, Carlos Hugo Godinho.
This scenario had small effects on the price of wheat. The price paid to the producer for a bag of good quality wheat on 25/10 was R$54,00, especially in the regions of the state that ended the harvest. This value is 10% higher than that practiced a month ago (R$49,00) and shows a search for wheat harvested before the rain. Feed wheat competes for the same market as corn, which did not change in price in the same period.
Barley crops, which were in good condition, were damaged by the rains. In the last week, crop conditions were reduced from 83% good and 17% average to 67% good, 29% average and 4% bad, which should affect the quality of the product to be harvested. Currently, 32% of the area is harvested, with practically half of this being removed in the last week, at a time that was not ideal, due to the humidity of the grains in the fields. Productivity was also affected, and production is currently expected to be 355,6 thousand tons, 10% lower than the potential 397 thousand tons, according to Deral.
Deral's monthly report kept the area and production volume expected for the first corn and soybean harvest of 2023/2024 practically unchanged. The expectation is that 314 thousand hectares of corn will be planted, resulting in a production of 3,1 million tons. Planting reached 91% of the area and the majority of crops are in good condition in the field.
In the soybean harvest, 5,8 million hectares are expected to be planted, with a production of 21,9 million tons. “Planting also advanced consistently and reached 58% of the total area in the State. The West and Central-West regions of the State have practically completed planting, while the North region is in full swing and the South begins to gain intensity from this last week of October”, explains Deral analyst Edmar Gervásio.
In the case of fruit, the damage caused by rain in orchards in Paraná is already observed by field technicians, associated with the difficulty in controlling diseases, especially in grapes, apples and tangerines. “The expectation of a more regular climate behavior can minimize these harmful impacts in the coming weeks, enabling the supply of quality fruits to consumers at the right time and satisfactorily remunerating fruit growers”, says Deral agronomist engineer Paulo Andrade.
As of this week, around 97% of crops from the second potato harvest have already been harvested, with only a few areas remaining in the Cornélio Procópio region. “In this harvest, there was no impact from the weather, considering that the areas to be harvested did not suffer as much from the rains as the Metropolitan Region, the Center South and the Southeast, for example”, explains agronomist Paulo Andrade.
The area of the first potato harvest remained at 14,6 thousand hectares, and 94% is already planted. Regarding the situation of crops, there have been changes in the last month. While, at the end of September, approximately 98% of the area was in good condition and only 2% was in average condition, with the rains, 4% of the crops are in poor condition, 24% are average, and 72% are good. “This could compromise the crop, but as the harvest is still evolving, we need to wait for the weather to behave,” adds Andrade.
According to the Department, onions also felt the effects of the rain. Around 2% of the area is in poor condition, mainly in Guarapuava, where the harvest has already started. Wholesale product prices increased by 122% this month, an increase that surpasses only that of lettuce.
The second tomato crop 22/23 is fully planted and the harvest increased by 3% this week. Production, estimated at 93,9 thousand tons, is close to initial expectations. The planting of the first harvest evolved and reached 77% of the area. The harvest has also started, mainly in the Apucarana and Cornélio Procópio regions.
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