Rabobank warns of the effect of US tariffs on Brazil

The Brazilian economic scenario remains under pressure due to increased tariff and geopolitical uncertainty, according to an analysis released this Tuesday (12) by Rabobank in the Brazil Weekly bulletin. The new tariffs on Brazilian products exported to the United States are already in effect, and the bank predicts that the dollar will end 2025 at R$5,75.

The study, authored by Maurício Une (pictured, left), Rabobank's chief economist for South America, and Renan Alves (pictured, right), a macroeconomist at Rabobank Brazil, indicates that the real appreciated 1,94% against the US dollar last week, trading at R$5,54346—the third-best performance among 24 emerging market currencies. Despite this, the dollar's weakening has been widespread.

In monetary policy, the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) maintained the tone of the previous statement, reinforcing the interruption of the Selic rate hike cycle to assess the effects of the measures already adopted. The Central Bank indicated that it will continue its contractionary policy for a longer period, with the possibility of further adjustments if necessary, to ensure inflation convergence to the target.

Copom also highlighted that the new tariffs imposed by the US could impact specific sectors of the Brazilian economy, and that the external scenario has become more adverse and uncertain.

In foreign trade, the trade surplus reached US$7,1 billion in July, above market expectations (US$5,8 billion) and Rabobank's own projection (US$5,6 billion). For the full year 2025, the surplus reaches US$37 billion. Exports grew before the impact of tariffs, while imports remained high.

On the domestic market radar, the release of the July IPCA is scheduled for this Tuesday, with Rabobank projecting a 0,37% increase for the month and a 5,34% increase over 12 months. Also this week, activity data for May will be released. Regionally, the highlight is Peru's interest rate decision, scheduled for Friday, with the rate expected to remain unchanged at 4,50% per year, as well as the release of Colombia's second-quarter GDP figures.