Rio Grande do Sul projects an 8,64% increase in grain production in 2026/27.

The area to be cultivated with corn in Rio Grande do Sul in the 2026/2027 harvest should be 7,42% larger than the previous harvest, reaching 896.401 hectares, and a production of 6.911.954 tons, 7,18% higher than the 6.448.709 tons obtained in the previous harvest. The estimated productivity for corn is 7.711 kg/ha, which corresponds to 0,25% less than that of the previous harvest, which was 7.730 kg/ha. 

Initial projections for the Summer Grain Harvest were presented by Emater/RS this Tuesday (September 1st), at a Breakfast for the Press, during the 49th Expointer, which takes place until Sunday (September 6th), at the Assis Brasil State Exhibition Park, in Esteio. The survey was conducted between August 10th and 24th, involving almost all municipalities that produce soybeans, corn, silage corn, beans, and rice. 

According to initial estimates, Rio Grande do Sul is expected to produce 35.639.371 tons, 8,64% more than last season. The total area, however, is projected to decrease by 0,37%. There is a projected cultivation area of ​​8.428.151 hectares. 

Soybean 

Soybeans are the crop driving this production, with 21.151.135 tons, 15,32% higher than the production obtained in the previous harvest, which was 18.341.586 tons, obtained from an estimated average productivity of 3.183 kg/ha, or 16,37% higher than the previous one, which was 2.735 kg/ha. For this harvest, the area to be cultivated with soybeans will be 6.645.384 hectares, that is, 0,92% less than the previous harvest, which was 6.707.017 hectares. 

Bean 

In the case of the first-crop beans, productivity is projected to increase by 8,10% compared to the previous harvest, rising from 1.627 kg/ha to 1.759 kg/ha in the summer crop, which should generate 43.244 tons, 1,20% more than the 42.732 tons obtained in the previous harvest. The area to be cultivated with first-crop beans in Rio Grande do Sul is estimated at 24.587 hectares, that is, -6,36% less than the 26.258 hectares of the last harvest. 

Corn silage 

Corn silage is the crop showing slight increases for the next harvest, both in area (0,19%), productivity (3,36%), and production (3,58%). For the 2026/2027 harvest, 369.389 hectares are expected to be planted with corn silage. In the 2025/2026 harvest, 368.692 hectares were cultivated. With an estimated average productivity of 38.392 kg/ha (compared to 37.144 kg/ha in the previous harvest), corn silage production this harvest should reach 14.181.712 tons (compared to 13.692.153 tons in the previous harvest). 

Rice 

In rice cultivation, a decrease in both cultivated area and production is expected. The projection is for 861.779 hectares cultivated compared to 891.909 in the previous harvest, a reduction of 3,4%. Production and productivity are expected to decrease by 5,49% and 2,21%, respectively. The 7.970.527 tons produced in the 2025/2026 harvest are projected to decrease to 7.533.037 tons, while productivity is expected to fall from 8.939 kg/ha to 8.741 kg/ha. 

Reviews 

When assessing the summer crop in Rio Grande do Sul, the president of Emater/RS, Claudinei Baldissera, highlighted the growth in the area planted with grain corn, compared to the previous crop and the 2024/2025 crop. "This increase in area is associated with factors such as the use of irrigation and good quality seeds." He emphasized corn's position as a crop that seeks the best performance in climate stability, strengthening its role as an important factor in crop rotation. 

Baldissera noted that silage corn is also showing a slight increase in the area under cultivation. "It's a significant area and represents a very important feed source for the animal protein sector, found in all regions of the state." 

According to Mateus Soares da Rocha, technical director of Emater/RS, one of the main challenges for the next harvest will be the indebtedness of rural producers, a condition that restricts access to credit from public and private financial agents. Adding to this scenario is the high cost of agricultural insurance and Proagro, which increases the financial exposure of producers and can limit their capacity for investment and contracting protection mechanisms against climatic and productive risks. 

In this context, the need for systematic technical monitoring and improved cost and risk management throughout the entire production cycle stands out. This monitoring should begin in the pre-planting period, encompassing crop selection, financial planning, and risk analysis; continue during crop establishment and development, with monitoring of climatic and agronomic conditions; and extend to the post-harvest period, especially in marketing planning and income management. 

“There is no room for error,” the technical director emphasized, when assessing the conditions for the next harvest. Among the factors of greatest concern is the occurrence of El Niño, which could interfere with the start of the planting of summer crops. The forecast of above-normal rainfall may reduce the planting window, cause difficulties in accessing the areas, and result in less available solar radiation. These conditions could compromise the initial establishment of the crops and reduce the productive potential. 

Despite the challenges, there are also positive aspects to the crop outlook. Among them is the increased estimate of area and/or production of corn, a crop that shows greater adaptation and productive response in conditions associated with El Niño. 

Conversely, an estimated reduction of 61.633 hectares in the soybean area is observed, concentrated mainly in regions considered less suitable for the crop. Areas located in the Porto Alegre and Soledade regions stand out in this trend, where edaphoclimatic conditions and production risks contribute to the reduction of the area dedicated to the oilseed. Given this scenario, crop planning should combine financial management, risk analysis, technical guidance, climate planning, and marketing strategies, reinforcing the availability and role of technical assistance and rural extension in farmers' decision-making.  

The ability to anticipate risks and adjust production decisions throughout the cycle will be fundamental to preserving family income and reducing vulnerability in an environment marked by indebtedness, high protection costs, and greater climate variability. 

weather forecast 

According to meteorologist and coordinator of the Agroclimatic Monitoring and Alert System of Rio Grande do Sul (Simagro), Flávio Varone, due to the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to intensify in the spring when planting of summer grain crops begins, rainfall is forecast to be above average. "Spring presents a probability of a strong/very strong El Niño, with average temperatures and intense rainfall above normal for the state, and no forecast of late frosts," he assesses. 

For the start of summer, Varone projects delays in planting and crop diseases due to high temperatures and excessive humidity, exacerbated by decreased sunlight and hampered field operations.