What will the weather be like in Brazil in March?
Rainfall is expected to be above average across much of the Northeast region.
Rainfall in the second half of February reduced water stress in soybean and corn crops in Rio Grande do Sul. However, some of the losses have already been consolidated after the drought in January and early February. Rice harvesting is beginning. Beans are ending their first harvest with losses in regions affected by the lack of rain. This information is from Emater/RS.
In soybeans, 60% of the areas are entering the grain-filling stage. Another 28% are in flowering. Maturation has reached 4%. Harvesting is in its early stages. The cultivated area totals 6.742.236 hectares. A new productivity estimate will be released in early March.
Water scarcity has caused flower and pod abortion. Producers report reduced plant size and shorter growing cycles. In the Bagé region, losses exceed 40% in Manoel Viana and São Borja. In Rosário do Sul, the shortfall is close to 30%. In Maçambará, it reaches 20%. In the Campanha region, the average indicates 10% below the initial potential, with better performance in lowland areas.
In Santa Rosa, losses could exceed 25%. In Ijuí, areas hit by the most severe drought are registering losses of up to 50%. In Erechim, estimates indicate a reduction of up to 30% in municipalities such as Getúlio Vargas and São Valentim.
Phytosanitary management has picked up pace following the restoration of moisture. Technicians have resumed fungicide applications against Asian soybean rust. Producers are monitoring thrips, mites, stink bugs, and caterpillars. The incidence remains low. There are isolated reports of pigweed.
In the corn field, the harvest has reached 60% of the area. Productivity in the harvested areas is close to the initial projection. The planted area totals 785.030 hectares. The projected productivity reaches 7.370 kg/ha.
In Rosário do Sul, losses exceed 40% due to filling failures and plant mortality. In São Gabriel, early crops yield between 7.200 and 7.800 kg/ha under rainfed conditions and up to 12.000 kg/ha under irrigation. In Erechim, the regional average is close to 9.000 kg/ha, with losses of up to 25% in some municipalities.
The corn leafhopper occurs in several regions and requires continuous monitoring. The fall armyworm appears sporadically. In the second crop season, water deficit compromises germination and initial development.
In rice, the harvest has reached 3% of the area. Most of the crops remain in the grain-filling (45%) and flowering (22%) stages. Maturation has reached 28%. The cultivated area totals 891.908 hectares. The projected productivity reaches 8.752 kg/ha.
Rain interspersed with cloud cover reduced solar radiation during sensitive phases. In Pelotas, temperatures above 35°C during anthesis can cause spikelet sterility. Producers are intensifying control of blast, leaf spots, and panicle caterpillars. Technicians are adjusting irrigation levels.
In the first bean crop, 53% of the areas have already been harvested. The projected average productivity reaches 1.779 kg/ha across 26.096 hectares. The drought caused flower and pod abortion in some areas. In Ijuí, productivity was below expectations. In Pelotas, the average is around 1.103 kg/ha.
In the second bean crop, 77% of the fields are in vegetative development. The projected area totals 11.690 hectares, with an estimated productivity of 1.401 kg/ha. Late planting avoided losses due to drought. Technicians report a low incidence of pests and diseases.
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