Producers will face hot and dry weather in the winter of 2025, predicts Inmet

The winter of 2025 will be marked by above-average temperatures and below-expected rainfall in much of Brazil. The forecast is included in the agroclimatic bulletin produced by Inpe, Inmet and Funceme. The scenario poses challenges for the management of the second harvest and for dryland crops.

In the North Region, excess rainfall is expected to benefit areas in northern Amazonas, Pará, Amapá and Roraima. In Acre, Rondônia, Tocantins and southern Amazonas and Pará, rainfall tends to be below average. The heat will be widespread, with anomalies that may exceed 2°C in the south of the region. Soil water storage tends to decrease from June onwards in southern Pará, Rondônia and Tocantins.

In the Northeast, the north of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte will receive above-average rainfall. In the rest of the region, the quarter will be drier. Soil moisture will gradually decrease in the interior of the region. The semi-arid region faces a high risk of water deficit. Second-crop corn may suffer during flowering, a stage that requires greater water availability.

In the Central-West, the bulletin indicates the beginning of the dry season. Temperatures are expected to be between 1°C and 2°C above average. The soil is already showing moisture loss in Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Federal District. The trend is for worsening, especially in the northeast of Mato Grosso, where a severe water deficit is expected in July.

The Southeast Region will also face below-average rainfall. Losses of soil moisture affect northern Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo and western São Paulo. In southern Minas Gerais and eastern São Paulo, levels remain more stable. Most of the region is expected to face water shortages throughout the quarter.

In the South, rainfall will be below average in Paraná, Santa Catarina and western Rio Grande do Sul. Only the northeast of Rio Grande do Sul could have rainfall above the climatological average. Even so, soil moisture levels should remain satisfactory, with the exception of western Paraná in May. There is no forecast of a significant water deficit in the region.