Possible impacts caused by El Niño worry European experts

The second half of 2023 will be marked by the resurgence of the El Niño phenomenon. Given its consequences on the climate, European Union experts insist that it will undoubtedly contribute to worsening atmospheric warming. The Indo-Pacific region is expected to experience a very hot fourth quarter with pronounced dry spells.

As the period coincides with the arrival of summer in the southern hemisphere, the consequences on agricultural productivity seem inevitable, according to a report released in Brussels, with a sharp drop in certain yields expected.

Climatologists estimate that this El Niño episode will be strong. And he's returning to the front of the stage faster than expected. It is still early to announce reliable forecasts, but there is already uncertainty regarding several agricultural raw materials, which could suffer yield drops of up to 40% from the first half of 2024 onwards. Certain cereals, sugar, palm oil or even citrus sector would be the most threatened.

A strong impact is already expected in the main agricultural regions. The meteorological disturbances brought about by the onset of the ocean-atmospheric phenomenon spare certain regions of the world, in particular the Maghreb or the Middle East. Just like Europe, where its effects will be felt very little.

Unfortunately, it is the regions of Asia-Pacific and the American continent, both north and south, that are most affected; the most important agricultural areas on the planet.

As a reminder, China, India and Indonesia are the 3 largest rice producers. The latter is also the main exporter of palm oil. Brazil is the main producer of soybeans, Australia is a very important player in the cultivation of barley or rapeseed.

The European Union foresees potential consequences for food security. The occurrence of an intense El Niño episode and, above all, its more frequent appearance may represent, in the medium term, a significant risk to food security in certain regions. Southern Africa, already under great pressure on imports, would be one of the first areas to suffer the consequences of a widespread drop in agricultural income.

These declines in yield and production pose a problem when they become established over time. In this case, supply difficulties arise. They then lead to higher prices for the raw materials and food sectors.

A situation that should be feared, with Southeast Asia, in particular, being the most vulnerable area, according to economists. In this part of the world, the food sector accounts for 40% of the consumer price index. On the other hand, Europe would be spared and could even benefit from the increase in the prices of agricultural products for its exports.