Paraná could surpass record corn production in the second harvest of 2023-24

Paraná could surpass the record production of second-crop corn, which was recorded in the 2022/23 cycle, with 14,1 million tons. If there is the expected recovery in productivity, it is estimated that the volume could grow by 2%, which would be projected at 14,4 million tons. The information is in the first Subjective Harvest Forecast (PSS), released by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), of the State Secretariat for Agriculture and Supply.

Between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, when the planting of the second previous harvest began, there was a delay in removing soy from the field, which made it difficult to implement the crops. Now this difficulty should not be repeated, providing faster planting.

In the case of corn, sowing is already underway in some parts of the state, but it should intensify in January, ending at the end of March. Corn is the main crop in the period and should occupy the same area of ​​2,3 million hectares as in the previous cycle.

“This maintenance initially indicates a lower willingness to take risks on the part of producers. Although the costs of cultivating corn have become lower in recent months, this decline did not occur in the same proportion as prices, inhibiting producers from increasing the cultivated area, even with the prospect of a more favorable planting window in 2024”, said the agronomist Carlos Hugo Godinho. The average price paid to producers in 2022 was R$79,86, while in 2023 it reached just R$54,58 per bag.

Bean – the estimate for second harvest beans is a reduction in area, going from 295 thousand hectares in the previous harvest to 293 thousand hectares now. The delay in the formation of soybeans, which are followed by beans, mainly in the South and Southwest, is one of the reasons for the lack of area expansion. “Despite prices being higher and costs reduced, many producers will not be able to plant due to difficulties with the calendar”, pondered Godinho. Black beans went from R$224,76 per bag, on average, in 2022, to R$245,87 this year.

“With this maintenance of the corn and beans area, wheat could also be planted in an area equivalent to that of the previous year, but the relationship between prices and costs is even more adjusted for wheat. As a result, the prospect is that this culture will also lose area,” said the analyst. 

French Fries e onion – second harvest potatoes are expected to cover 11,4 thousand hectares, yielding 350,4 thousand tons, a volume 5% higher than that of the 2022/23 harvest, when 334,5 thousand tons were harvested. According to agronomist Paulo Andrade, around 22% of the area is already sown.

75% of the 2,7 thousand hectares of onion are already harvested, which should yield 91,7 thousand tons (15% less than the 107 thousand tons of the previous harvest). Of what was harvested, around 26% is still with the producer who is waiting for the best moment to put it on the market. “As for onions, the planting area has systematically fallen in Paraná and in Brazil as well,” said Andrade. In Paraná there were 3,9 thousand hectares in 2021/22, it fell to 3,3 thousand hectares in the following period and in the 23/24 harvest it is 2,7 thousand hectares.

first harvest – In relation to the estimate for the first 2023/24 harvest, the December report brings little news, consolidating the losses in beans, which should present a production of 176,1 thousand tons, as well as presenting no significant changes to the projected productions of the others cultures.

Currently, soybeans in Paraná have 34% of crops with pods already formed, while they were only 18% in the same period of 2022, a situation driven especially by the North and West regions. The projection is for a harvest of 21,7 million tons.

First-crop potatoes had a sharp drop in productivity, going from 31 thousand kilos per hectare in the previous cycle to 28 thousand kilos now. “The rains in the second semester compromised and there was a reduction of around 15% in the possibility of production,” said Andrade. Producers have already harvested 46% of the 14,7 thousand hectare area. Of this total, 41% have not yet been sold.

93% of the 2,4 hectares of tomatoes are planted and 51% have already been harvested, with practically everything sold. In coffee, the estimate is to cover 25,7 thousand hectares, almost the same area as the last harvest, when it was 25,9 thousand hectares. Production should also follow the same trend, with 42,4 thousand tons, against 43,8 thousand tons in the 2022/23 harvest. “This year was surprising, the weather was good, but there are some crops that did not fully recover from the frost and that should have full production in 2024, providing this balance”, said economist Paulo Sergio Franzini.