Orange juice stocks show recovery, but supply scenario remains challenging

Brazilian orange juice stocks (FCOJ equivalent to 66° Brix) on June 30, 2024, the transition period between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 harvests, recorded a volume of 116.710 tons, a recovery of 37,7% compared to the 84.745 tons in the same period of the previous year. However, it is still the third lowest index in the historical series. The survey was carried out through independent audits with each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and, subsequently, confidentially consolidated by an external auditor.

juice production

The consolidation also showed that total juice production in the 2023/24 harvest, which ended last June, was 898,6 thousand tons, 5% less than the 945,5 thousand tons produced in the previous harvest.

Industrial processing and yield

While in the 2023/24 harvest it is estimated that 267,9 million boxes of 40,8-kilo oranges were processed for CitrusBR members and non-members, in the previous harvest the processing reached 265,3 million boxes of 40,8 kilos, a difference of less than 1%.

The reason for the decrease in juice production is the degradation of the so-called industrial yield, which is the amount of 40,8-kilo boxes needed to produce one ton of FCOJ equivalent to 66° Brix. While in the 2023/24 harvest, 298,1 boxes were needed to produce one ton of FCOJ equivalent, 6,26% more than the 280,6 boxes in the previous harvest. “This difference in industrial yield was responsible for reducing around 56,3 thousand tons of orange juice, which contributes to the scenario of restricted supply”, says CitrusBR's executive director, Ibiapaba Netto.

Fruit and juice offer

The citrus belt of São Paulo and Minas Gerais is facing its fifth consecutive cycle of small harvests, mainly due to periods of drought and extreme heat. According to the forecast of 216 million boxes released by Fundecitrus on September 10, if confirmed, it will be the smallest harvest in the last 30 years, which contributes to the situation of restricted supply. “When observing the 2024/25 harvest, with a production 29,6% lower than the previous one in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, it is possible to foresee difficulties in supply throughout this harvest”, says Netto.

Historical stock of equivalent FCOJ, in tons, on June 30, of the respective years (in tons):

2024: 116.710

2023: 84.745

2022: 143.104

2021: 316.929

2020: 471.138           

2019: 253.181

2018: 342.967

2017: 107.387

2016: 351.567

2015: 510.393

2014: 534.529                                

2013: 765.924

2012: 662.452