Orange juice stocks record drop of 40,7%

Brazilian orange juice stocks (FCOJ Equivalent to 66 degrees Brix) on June 30, the period that marks the transition from the 2022/2023 harvest to the 2023/24 harvest, registered a volume of 84.745 tons, a drop of 40,7% compared to the 143.104 tons existing in the same period of the previous year. The number is the result of a survey carried out through independent audits with each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and, subsequently, confidentially consolidated by an external audit.

This value represents the lowest inventory level since the beginning of the historical series, 12 years ago. During the period, 265.292.217 boxes weighing 40,8 kilos were processed between members and non-members, 18% more than the 224.422.184 boxes produced in the previous harvest. Total juice production in the 2022/23 harvest was 945.529 tons, an increase of 15% compared to the 821.600 produced in the previous harvest.

Among the main reasons for the strong drop are the decrease of 2,7 million boxes between the initial and final estimates released by Fundecitrus, around 8 million boxes lost due to problems during the harvesting process and the deterioration of yield industrial fruit juice. Together, these factors were responsible for reducing the market by approximately 82.471 tons, which were no longer produced.

“There were 11,6 million fewer boxes, which meant a loss of 43.300 tons. The increase from 269,3 to 280,58 boxes for the production of one ton of FCOJ equivalent removed another around 39.600 tons from the market and all this together brought us to this situation”, assesses Netto.

Florida and other markets

The effects of this reduction in product supply were amplified by the drop in orange production in Florida, which has faced serious effects from the HLB (greening) disease. Last September, Hurricane Ian reduced that state's production from 41,2 million boxes of 40,8 kg in the 2021/22 season to 15,8 million in the 2022/23 harvest. The loss of 25,4 million boxes led to a reduction of 87.300 tons in the supply of juice on the world market. Additionally, other producing countries such as Mexico and Spain have faced severe droughts and reduced harvests, while at the same time counting on strong demand for oranges in their fresh fruit markets.

Stocks as of June 30, 2024

Considering the first estimates for the 2023/2024 harvest made by Fundecitrus, which indicate a 1,6% reduction in production, added to the Brix problems in the production of orange juice, it is possible to predict difficulties in supplying the product throughout the season . Given this scenario, it is not feasible to assess supply and demand conditions for the coming months and predict orange juice stock levels for June 30, 2024.