National cocoa receipt increased 10,5% in October compared to the previous month

The volume received of national almonds increased 10,5% in October compared to that received in September, rising from 15.201 tons to 16.810 tons. Comparing October this year with the same month in the previous year, there was a growth of 22,9%, since in the month of October 2021 the volume received was lower than that seen in 2022, with 13.669 tons. “The results in almond production are a reflection of investments in recent years, which have been consolidating a gradual improvement in productivity and consequently in the volume produced”, explains the executive director of the National Association of Cocoa Processing Industries (AIPC), Anna Paula Losi. In fact, the accumulated result for the first ten months of 2022 shows growth, compared to the previous year, of approximately 1,8% according to data compiled by SindiDados – Campos Consultores and released by AIPC. During the period, 170.325 tons of almonds were received, compared to 167.228 tons in the same period in 2021.

Between January and October 2022, almond crushing was 186.122 tons, a small decrease of approximately 0,4% compared to the 187.030 tons in the same previous period. In the comparison between September and October, the volume processed grew 5,4%, going from 19.697 to 20.766 tons. In comparison with October 2021, there was a growth of 3,5%, as the volume processed in the same month of the previous year was 20.062. “Grinding is stable, after recovery from the pandemic period, but the trend is for continuous improvement, as the global economic situation also improves” ponders Anna Paula.

In October there were no imports of almonds, and the accumulated amount up to August was 11.034 tons compared to 46.757 tons imported between January and October 2021. Anna Paula states that “importing almonds is still necessary because national production is not sufficient to meet the installed capacity of the milling industry, but as the data shows, the trend is downward given the improvement in the Brazilian harvest”.

Exports of derivatives, which mainly serve the markets of the United States, Argentina and Chile, also fell year-to-date, from 45.051 tons in 2021 to 41.003 tons this year, a drop of 8,9%.

Receipt by state

The receipt of almonds by state was highlighted by the volume sent by Bahia, of 111.474 tons in this year's total, there was a decrease of approximately 5,7% in relation to the 118.294 tons in 2021, followed by Pará with 51.242 tons, whose volume grew 18,7% compared to 43.156 tons in the same period in 2021, followed by Espírito Santo with 5.850 tons compared to 4.270 tons, an increase of 37% and Rondônia with 1.362 tons compared to 1.448 tons, a drop of 5,9%. In the comparison between September and October, the receipt of almonds was greater in two of the four states, with the exception of Rondônia, which went from 121 tons to 105, and Pará, which went from 2.918 tons to 2.288. In any case, among the four main regions, Bahia continues to have the highest value of deliveries to industry, 13.431 tons, compared to 3.379 from the other regions.

International market analysis

According to StoneX analyst Caio Santos, during the end of October, going into the first half of November, cocoa began a price recovery movement, supported by fundamentals, which brought prices from US$2.278 to US$2.580 per ton in March/23 screen.

Cooling fears over global inflation increase the likelihood of a rebound in the global crush in the 2022/23 season. “With production in West Africa threatened, cocoa tends to gain increasingly clear bullish contours,” he said.

However, after the recent upward movement, prices have already entered overbought territory, that is, according to technical indicators of trend oscillators, there is a tendency for prices to correct downwards during the week. Supports, price targets in a downward movement, are seen in the regions of US$2.493/ton and US$2.467/ton, while resistances, targets in an upward movement, remain at US$2.563/ton and US$2.600/ton.