Ministry of Agriculture turns 160

On July 28, 1860, Emperor D. Pedro II signed the Decree No. 1.067, creating the State Secretariat for Agriculture, Commerce and Public Works, today called the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply, which turns 28 this Tuesday (160). 

Throughout the Empire, the Secretariat sought to regulate issues relating to agriculture through various measures to promote and modernize production. Farming during the monarchical period was divided into two productions: sugar in the Northeast and coffee in the Center-South. In addition, there were smaller areas dedicated to the cultivation of other products, such as cotton in the Northeast, which constituted the basis of the Maranhão economy, tobacco in the Cachoeira and Santo Amaro regions in Bahia and in some municipalities in Alagoas and Sergipe, and also the of cocoa in southern Bahia and in some areas of Pará.  

Today, agriculture has expanded, modernized and Brazil has become an agro-environmental powerhouse. Agribusiness is responsible for 21% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 20% of jobs in the country. Brazil exports to more than 200 countries and 1,5 billion people have some food on their plate that comes from our agriculture. 

Brazil is the world's third largest exporter of agricultural products and the main producer and exporter of important products such as sugar, coffee, orange juice, soybeans and meat. All of this combined with sustainability and environmental preservation practices, following the global requirement for food demand to be met with minimal environmental impact and low cost. 

On this day when the Map turns 160 years old, we want to celebrate  not only the past and present, but also project the future. In the next decade, Brazil's grain production is expected to increase by 27%; beef, 16%; pork, 27%, and chicken meat will grow 28%. The data is contained in the Agribusiness Projections, Brazil 2019/20 to 2029/30, updated annually based on information covering the period from 1994 to May of this year. The study is carried out by the Agricultural Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply, by the Intelligence and Strategic Relations Secretariat of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) and by the Statistics Department of the University of Brasília (UnB).

The report points out that Brazilian agriculture has a promising scenario for the next ten years, despite the occurrence of the Covid-19 pandemic, which affected the trajectory of the national economy throughout this year and affected some agricultural activities, such as vegetables, fruits and milk. “The pandemic, however, did not affect the grain harvest and the production and distribution of beef, pork and poultry”, highlights José Garcia Gasques, general coordinator of Information Policy Assessment at the ministry and one of the coordinators of the projections. 

In the projection for the next decade, Brazil will jump from the current 250,9 million tons in 2019/20 (according to a Conab survey in May/2020) to 318,3 million tons, an increase of 27% to national production . Cotton, second-crop corn and soybeans should continue to drive growth in grain production. 

The grain planted area is expected to expand from 65,5 million hectares to 76,4 million hectares in 2029/30, an increase of 16,7%. Taking into account the total area planted with crops, including grains, sugar cane, cocoa, coffee, oranges, fruits and cassava, the country should go from 77,7 million hectares (2019/20) to 88,2 million (2029/30), an increase of 13,5%. The additional need for areas can be met through crop replacement, pasture reduction and a direct planting system.

Some crops, such as cassava, coffee, rice, oranges and beans, are expected to lose area, but the reduction will be offset by productivity gains. Projections also indicate a tendency to reduce pasture area in the coming years. 

The study points out that the development of agricultural production in Brazil must continue to occur based on productivity. A growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of 2,93% per year is projected until 2030. This value is the result of the analysis of trends in the reduction of employed labor, reduction of planted area due to gains in land productivity and increased use of capital.

"The area planted with grains will increase by 16,7% and production should increase by 27%. This means that growth will be due to gains in productivity. Even in border areas, productivity will drive growth, not the area. Even when we use a more complete indicator for productivity, the predicted rate is high", comments Gasques. 

The expansion of agriculture will require investments in infrastructure, research and financing, the study points out. According to Gasques, the research aims to indicate directions of growth in agriculture and provide information to public policy makers on trends in agribusiness products. 

Regional projections 

The work also presents regional projections for the rural sector. Mato Grosso should continue to lead the expansion of corn and soybean production in the country. 

According to the research coordinator, the study indicates that the greatest increases in sugarcane production and area should occur in the states of Goiás, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais. “But São Paulo, as the largest national producer, also projects a high expansion of production and area of ​​this product”, says Gasques. 

Matopiba 

The region called Matopiba, which comprises the Cerrado biome in the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, is expected to show an increase in area and grain production. “It is a region with great potential and which deserves a lot of attention from public policies in order to develop”, predicts the coordinator. Projections indicate that this region should produce 32,7 million tons in an area of ​​almost 9 million hectares at the end of the decade studied. 

According to the research, productivity-based growth is expected to occur in almost all regions of the country, especially in new regions, such as Matopiba. 

Trends in international trade 

In the international context, Brazil must continue to be, together with the United States, one of the largest food producers and exporters. Considered a major supplier of quality and sustainable food to the world. 

In meat, there will be strong pressure from the international market, especially for beef and pork, although Brazil will continue to lead the international chicken market. 

Brazil is expected to account for almost 52% of world soybean exports, 35,3% of chicken meat, 23,2% of corn exports, 22,7% of cotton and 9,7% of pork exports. 

Among the products highlighted by the increase in exports in the next decade are sugar, which will increase from 15,98 million tons in 2019/20 to 25,23 million tons in 2029/30 (an increase of 57,9%) and cotton, with an increase of 41,6%. Corn exports are expected to increase from 34,5 million tons to 44,5 million in the period, an increase of 29,1%.

Chicken meat is expected to increase by 34,3% in exports and pork by 36,8%. Fruits also stand out, with an increase in exports of mango (57,6%), melon (47,6%) and apple (43,4%). 

Family Farming in projections 

Activities such as floriculture and horticulture are very prominent in family farming. Also in the production of meat, especially pork and chicken, they are notable in this agricultural segment. Other activities such as coffee, milk and fruit are also predominantly family activities, in addition to crops such as tobacco and cassava. 

Some family farming projections for production in the next decade could reach 11,4 million tons of cassava, 24,5 million tons of coffee, 745,2 million tons of tobacco, 2,69 million tons of pork, 8,36 million chicken meat, and 20,3 billion liters of milk. 

Soy, beans and corn are the activities in which family farming has the lowest share. This may be due to large-scale production and the use of technology. 

Read the full research here.