Mato Grosso faces historic water deficit

On the eve of official authorization for planting the country's soybean crop, Mato Grosso, the main producing state, is experiencing a critical situation. Soil moisture is at its lowest level in 30 years, with a trend for further decline in the next two weeks, according to projections from the European model ECMWF. The drought has already lasted several weeks and is expected to persist until at least September 17, according to data compiled by EarthDaily, a company specializing in monitoring agricultural areas using satellite data. 

The heat makes the situation worse: temperatures above 40°C increase evapotranspiration, intensifying moisture loss. This situation could lead many producers to postpone sowing, even after the end of the dry season on September 6th.

In much of Goiás and the South of the country, soil moisture is already satisfactory, favoring the start of sowing. In these regions, producers can begin planting with greater confidence, taking advantage of adequate water conditions to ensure better germination and crop establishment.

In Paraná, the situation is more mixed. In the Northern Pioneer region, where planting is already authorized, soil moisture remains below average and could reach its lowest level in 10 years in the coming weeks, which could lead producers to postpone both soybean and summer corn planting.

"Although soybean sowing is authorized starting next week in some regions, the persistence of soil water deficits may result in a delay in the start of field work, as many producers tend to wait for more favorable moisture conditions to ensure uniform germination," explains Felippe Reis, crop analyst at EarthDaily.

Over the past ten days, most of the country has recorded below-average accumulated rainfall, confirming the continuation of the dry season typical of the period. Only specific areas of the Northeast, Southeast, and Paraná received above-average rainfall, with accumulated rainfall ranging from 10 mm in the interior of São Paulo to up to 60 mm in eastern Paraná.

Forecasts indicate continued dry weather across most of the country, with the exception of the South, especially Rio Grande do Sul, and areas of the Northeast, where rainfall is expected. In the case of Mato Grosso, while the American GFS model signals the possibility of rainfall in the late first half of September, the European ECMWF model maintains its drought projection.

Furthermore, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate above-average temperatures for much of the Central-West, Southeast and Paraná, a condition that should increase evapotranspiration and further reduce soil moisture in regions already affected by drought.