Mato Grosso ends the 2025/26 harvest with a record corn production.

The 2025/26 corn harvest ended with a new production record in Mato Grosso. According to data consolidated by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), released this Monday (August 31), the state produced 58,04 million tons of the cereal, a volume 4,69% higher than the 55,43 million tons recorded in the previous season.

According to the new Supply and Demand report, this result was supported by the increase in cultivated area and also by the good performance of the crops throughout the cycle. The planted area was consolidated at 7,43 million hectares, a growth of 2,41% compared to the 2024/25 harvest. Average productivity reached 130,11 sacks per hectare, a 2,23% increase compared to 127,27 sacks per hectare in the previous season.

The harvest of the 2025/2026 second corn crop was completed in Mato Grosso on August 21st. This year, the prolonged rains in the main producing regions favored plant development and grain filling. Even with some losses in areas sown outside the ideal window, the performance of the crops was sufficient to raise the average state productivity and take Mato Grosso to a new level of production.

According to Gabriel Brandão, a corn analyst at Imea, the result demonstrates the productive capacity of Mato Grosso's crops and the favorable weather conditions for corn performance.

“We had a very favorable combination this season, with an increase in area and productivity above that observed in the previous cycle. This allowed Mato Grosso to reach a new production record,” he explains.

What should the next season be like?

The Supply and Demand report, published this Monday, points to a cautious scenario for producers in the 2026/27 crop season. The cultivated area is expected to grow by 0,59% in the next season, reaching 7,48 million hectares.

On the other hand, the initially estimated productivity is 119,64 sacks per hectare, a decrease of 8,05% compared to the consolidated result of the current harvest. Therefore, the initial projected production is 53,68 million tons, which would represent a drop of 7,50% compared to the 58,04 million tons of the current harvest.

According to Gabriel, one of the main points of attention for the next cycle is related to the climate and the planting window. The possibility of El Niño occurring could delay soybean planting, reducing the period available for corn sowing within the ideal window.

“For the next harvest, producers need to pay closer attention to planning. A potential delay in soybean planting could shorten the corn planting window, and subsequently, an earlier end to the rainy season, coupled with high temperatures, could increase the risk of water stress. Therefore, at this initial stage, we are working with a more conservative productivity outlook,” says the analyst.

In addition to production conditions, the corn market in the state is undergoing a change with the advancement of industrialization. In the 2025/26 harvest, domestic consumption in Mato Grosso was estimated at 23,27 million tons, driven mainly by corn ethanol industries.

For the 2026/27 harvest, Imea projects that this consumption will increase to 27,04 million tons, a growth of 16,23%. With this, domestic consumption should surpass the state's exports for the first time.

The expectation is that exports will fall from 24,10 million tons in the 2025/26 crop year to 17,50 million tons in 2026/27, a reduction of 27,39%.

According to Gabriel Brandão, the growth of the ethanol industry represents a structural change in the Mato Grosso market.

"Corn produced in the state is finding more and more space within Mato Grosso. The expansion of the industry creates a firmer domestic demand and changes the relationship between what is destined for the domestic market and what goes for export," he points out.

With higher domestic consumption and initially lower projected production, ending stocks are also expected to be tighter. For 2026/27, Imea estimates stocks of 285,08 tons, 55,77% below the volume projected for the end of the 2025/26 harvest.

“We are entering a season in which supply tends to be lower, while domestic demand continues to grow. This scenario reinforces the need for market monitoring, both by producers and other agents in the supply chain,” concludes Gabriel.