As of today (16/9), soybean planting is authorized in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS). According to data from the Soybean Producers Association of MS (Aprosoja/MS), the expectation is that for the 2024/2025 harvest, the area destined for the cultivation of the oilseed will be 4,5 million hectares, an increase of 6,8%, compared to the 2023/2024 harvest, when 4,2 million hectares were destined in the State. Regarding productivity, the expectation is 51,7 sc/ha, an increase of 5,9% compared to the previous cycle.
“13,9 million tons of soybeans will be produced in Mato Grosso do Sul, an increase of 13,2%. In the 2023/2024 harvest, 12,3 million tons of soybeans were produced. We will face many challenges ahead, including the climate and the financial organization of rural producers, who have suffered significant losses in previous harvests,” says the president of Aprosoja/MS, Jorge Michelc.
According to the technical coordinator of Aprosoja/MS, Gabriel Balta, “the last two harvests were challenging for rural producers due to the climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature) that significantly impacted production potential. Soybean and corn cultivation in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul is becoming increasingly challenging, and the current scenario is not for amateurs.”
For Fábio Caminha, secretary-director of the Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Mato Grosso do Sul (Famasul), the producer remains resilient to the market in the face of critical moments, but must seek assistance both in training and in improving their production.
“Producers are resilient by nature. Harvests come and go, some are more productive, others less so. At the beginning of the harvest, producers face a tight financial situation, which requires caution and a review of investments, rethinking the farm’s economy. This is where Senar/MS comes in, helping producers to better understand their reality and improve their strategies to face challenges in the field,” he points out.
Between the months of September and April, Mato Grosso do Sul usually experiences its rainy season. The presence of the La Niña phenomenon makes the amount of rainfall in the Central-West region of Brazil uncertain. Currently, Mato Grosso do Sul is under the influence of a weak to moderate La Niña.
The 2024/2025 soybean harvest promises to be a positive harvest compared to the 23/24 harvest. "International demand should continue to expand and, depending on the supply of grains made available to the international market by the main producing countries, may have a positive impact on the price of a bag of soybeans. In recent harvests, the weighted average price of a bag of soybeans showed a negative trend, going from R$168,34/bag in 21/22 to R$138,82 in the 22/23 harvest and R$117,14 in the 23/24 harvest. The trend now is that in the 24/25 harvest, prices will be between R$120,00 and R$130,00/bag, if current international market conditions remain, starting a trend of price appreciation", explains the Economics analyst at Aprosoja/MS, Mateus Fernandes.
Production costs are an auxiliary tool in agricultural financial management. Costs are assessed by adding up all direct and indirect expenses, variable and fixed costs, associated with crop production, in this case soybeans. The estimated productivity of soybeans was 50 bags per hectare and the average price used was one hundred and twenty reais per 60 kg bag (R$ 120,00/bag). “It is worth noting that the production cost follows a methodology that allows comparison between previous and subsequent costs, that each property has particularities regarding land, capital and labor factors, and that since it is an estimate, these values may differ, but on average, it shows the estimated value spent by producers in the state”, says Mateus.
The total cost was estimated at R$5.987,24, equivalent to 49,89 bags per hectare, below the value estimated by Aprosoja/MS for the previous 23/24 harvest, which was R$6.170,61, demonstrating a 3% reduction in the total cost. However, even with this reduction, some components showed an increase compared to the previous harvest, such as seeds (0,3%), seed treatment (4,3%), soil corrective (19,6%) and fertilizers (3,8%).
Although crop costs are one of the main factors responsible for the annual increase in production costs, due to changes in input prices, fees, taxes, depreciation of machinery, land rent, administrative and advisory services, among others, are very relevant and should also be included in the costs. Crop cost costs were estimated at R$3.431,60, which is equivalent to 28,60 bags/ha. Among crop cost costs, fertilizer costs are the most significant, accounting for 32,78% (R$1.125,00), i.e., 9,38 bags per hectare are required to pay for them. In second place is propagation material, which are seeds, with 16,58% (R$568,80) or 4,74 bags per hectare.
The production cost of Aprosoja/MS also considers the use of biological products, in order to compare it with the traditional cost and to adjust the analysis with producers who are already using this new technological tool in inputs for soybean production. The data are compared to the traditional cost. The detail of the inclusion of biological technology was highlighted in the seed treatment and fungicides, where the cost for seed treatment was estimated at 80,00/ha for biological products and 42,00/ha for traditional products. Regarding fungicides, the estimated value for biological products was 436,00/ha, while the traditional cost was 425,50/ha. The traditional cost of the crop was R$3.431,60/ha, while for biological products it was R$3.480,10/ha. The increase in the total cost due to the application of biological products was less than 2%.
The sanitary break and planting periods for the 24/25 soybean harvest in Mato Grosso do Sul were defined by the Ministry of Agriculture (Mapa). According to Ordinance SDA/Mapa No. 1.111, from June 15 to September 15, the cultivation of oilseeds is prohibited throughout the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the start of sowing is permitted from September 16 to December 31.
The measure aims to reduce fungal inoculum Phakopsora pachyrhizi, which causes Asian rust, a disease that can reduce soybean production by up to 90%. In the 23/24 harvest, Mato Grosso do Sul was the third state with the highest incidence of the disease, with 35 cases, behind Paraná, with 128, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 110 cases. According to data from the Anti-Rust Consortium, a platform for monitoring cases of the disease coordinated by Embrapa Soja, in MS the municipality that recorded the most cases of the disease was Naviraí, in the southern region.
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His academic background includes a master's degree in phytopathology from the University of Passo Fundo and a degree in agronomy from the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (Esalq)
