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Apple production in Santa Catarina for the next harvest is expected to reach 615 tons, representing a 28% increase compared to the previous year. Despite a slight 0,3% reduction in cultivated area, average productivity is expected to increase 28,4%, reaching 35,7 kg/ha. This information was released by Epagri's Center for Socioeconomics and Agricultural Planning (Epagri/Cepa) with the initial estimates for the 2025/26 summer harvest in the state.
The Fuji variety leads production, accounting for 53,8% of the area and 51,2% of the total estimate, followed by Gala, with 44,3% of the area and 47,2% of production, while early apples represent 1,9% of the area and 1,6% of production. The Campos de Lages region accounts for the majority of production, with 83,1% of the total, followed by Joaçaba (11,2%) and Curitibanos (5,6%). With a forecast higher production volume of the fruit, the expectation is better margins for producers and more competitive prices in the national market.
The estimates also include rice, soybeans, corn grain, corn silage, beans, bananas, and tobacco. Productivity growth is expected for several crops, but Socioeconomic and Rural Development analysts warn of a possible price decline, especially for grains, which requires caution from producers.
Glaucia Padrão, Socioeconomic and Rural Development Analyst at Epagri/Cepa, warns that the drop in grain prices, driven by increased domestic supply in the previous harvest, requires Santa Catarina farmers to begin the new agricultural cycle by reviewing strategies and adjusting planting areas to balance costs and returns. "The expectation is that market analysis and regional decisions will guide crop choices and allow for more secure planning for the new harvest," she states.
After successive years of decline, the initial projection for the 2025/26 harvest in Santa Catarina points to a 0,83% increase in cultivated area compared to the previous cycle, a result attributed to the strong performance recorded last season. The estimated average yield is 8.735 kg/ha, which could consolidate the second-best figure in the historical series. The forecast is for a harvest of 2,25 million tons, a lower volume than the previous cycle, but considered positive.
In the domestic market, prices remain stable, with a slight upward trend supported by demand for feed and ethanol, in addition to the pace of exports. In Santa Catarina, approximately 34% of the projected area has already been planted, benefiting from regular rainfall that favors germination and early crop development.
Corn for silage production is expected to see a 1,03% increase in planted area in Santa Catarina this harvest. To date, approximately 31% of the estimated area has already been planted. Although agroclimatic zoning allowed planting from the beginning of August in the Far West and South of the state, the progress of the crops was delayed by the low temperatures recorded last month.
In Santa Catarina, first-crop bean cultivation continues to lose ground to corn and soybeans, reflecting a migration of producers to other crops in the first planting window. For the 2025/26 harvest, the planted area is expected to fall by approximately 5,67%, from 34.499 to 32.544 hectares, with an estimated average yield of 2.061 kg/ha. Despite the reduction in area, total first-crop production is expected to grow by approximately 5,36%, reaching 67,3 tons. To date, less than 1% of the state's projected area has been planted.
Banana production in Santa Catarina for the 2025/26 harvest is estimated at 770 tons, representing a slight increase of 0,3% compared to the previous year. The cultivated area is expected to grow 3,2%, while average productivity is expected to decrease 1,9%, reaching 26.490 kg/ha. The caturra banana dominates production, accounting for 72,6% of the area and 82,4% of the estimated production, followed by the prata banana, with 27,4% of the area and 17,6% of the production.
The North and Itajaí Valley regions account for 84,7% of production, while the South accounts for 15,3% of the harvested volume, despite having 24,4% of the area in production. The prospect of milder weather conditions throughout the harvest may result in improved bunch development in banana plantations, resulting in higher quality and higher market value for the fruit compared to the previous year.
Tobacco production in Santa Catarina is projected to grow for the 2025/26 harvest, driven primarily by the expansion of planted area, which is expected to increase 3,94% to 97.126 hectares. Total production is estimated at 233.782 tons, a 3,49% increase over the previous cycle, while the state's average yield remains stable at 2.406 kg/ha. Growth is occurring horizontally, with a focus on expanding the area, reflecting attractive tobacco prices.
The regional scenario is heterogeneous: Criciúma projects a jump of over 40% in area and production, while Araranguá and Tubarão also show strong expansion, with a 20% growth in area and a 13% to 15% increase in production, demonstrating producers' optimism regarding the profitability of the crop.
The 2025/26 rice harvest in Santa Catarina begins with a contraction: cultivated area is expected to fall 1,29% and productivity to decline 4,91%, returning to levels considered normal after the record performance of the last cycle. As a result, total production is estimated at 1,22 million tons, a still positive result, but less significant than that of 2024/25. Excess supply and transportation difficulties are keeping domestic prices low, discouraging planting and already affecting crops, with 46% of the projected area planted so far.
After more than ten years of continuous expansion, the area allocated to soybean cultivation in Santa Catarina is expected to shrink by 1,75% in the 2025/26 harvest, equivalent to more than 13 hectares. The decline occurs amid pressure on oilseed prices in 2025, increased corn and silage production, and the resumption of tobacco cultivation in the south of the state, while planting for the new season has not yet begun in the state.
The drop in prices since 2024 and early 2025 explains the movement, although the grain continues to have weight in foreign trade: until August of this year, Santa Catarina exported approximately 1 million tons of soybeans, generating more than US$ 400 million.
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