MS Safra 2025/26: Corn maintains good productive potential.

The 2025/2026 second-crop corn continues to develop well in Mato Grosso do Sul, but the advance of dry weather and the risk of frost are putting farmers on alert. According to a survey by the Siga-MS Project, carried out by Aprosoja/MS with resources from Fundems/Semadesc, 71,5% of the state's crops are in good condition, while 17,8% are in fair condition and 10,7% are in poor condition.

The best crop conditions are concentrated in the northern, northeastern, western, and southwestern regions of the state, where the percentage of areas classified as good ranges from 75,4% to 92,1%. The northern region has 92,1% of its areas in good condition. The western region, on the other hand, has 84,6% of its crops classified as good.

On the other hand, the central, southern, southern border, and southeastern regions show greater sensitivity to climatic conditions. In these areas, the percentage of crops classified as poor is 23,8%, mainly due to irregular rainfall and the risk of drought and frost during the crop cycle. In the central region, which includes municipalities such as Sidrolândia, Rio Brilhante, and Campo Grande, 57,9% of the areas show good productive potential, while 23,8% have already registered losses.

Furthermore, recent weather events are drawing the attention of producers. In the third week of May, municipalities such as Dourados, Deodápolis, Fátima do Sul, and Ivinhema were hit by hail, causing localized damage to corn crops.

According to the technical coordinator of Aprosoja/MS, Gabriel Balta, the scenario is still favorable, but will depend on the weather patterns in the coming weeks. “The outlook for the second corn crop in Mato Grosso do Sul is positive; however, producers need to pay close attention to weather conditions in the coming weeks. We have areas in the center and south of the state that are already showing the impact of irregular rainfall, in addition to isolated occurrences of hail and the risk of frost during the reproductive phase of the crop. This could compromise part of the productive potential of these regions,” he assesses.

The coordinator also points out that planting within the ideal window helps to sustain the crop's production expectations. "A large part of the area was sown within the most favorable window, which contributes to maintaining the productive potential. Even so, the weather patterns between May and June will be decisive in consolidating the projected figures for this harvest," he adds.

The survey by Aprosoja/MS also shows an important change in the state's production profile. This harvest, corn will occupy approximately 46% of the area previously destined for soybeans, a percentage below the 75% recorded in previous years. The reduction is directly related to the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risk (Zarc), which influences producers' planting decisions.

In the climate scenario, meteorological models indicate a 92% probability of the El Niño phenomenon occurring in the quarter between June and August 2026, with a tendency to intensify throughout the second half of the year. Among the expected impacts are temperatures above the historical average and a higher frequency of heat waves.

In the market, corn available in Mato Grosso do Sul was quoted, on average, at R$ 51,14 per sack on May 18th. Meanwhile, sales of the second 2026 crop have reached 22% of the estimated production so far.

Current estimates from the Siga-MS Project indicate corn cultivation on 2,206 million hectares, with an expected average yield of 84,2 sacks per hectare and a projected production of 11,139 million tons.