Lower coffee production in the 2021/22 harvest could support prices in 2021

The drop in coffee production in the 2021/22 harvest compared to the current one (2020/21) is taken for granted. Agents consulted by Cepea, however, are still uncertain about the size of this reduction – it is necessary to wait for progress in the development of crops to make a better estimate.

In addition to being a negative biannual year for Arabica coffee plantations, crops were also significantly harmed by the hot and dry weather for much of 2020, especially during the opening of the flowers in the second half of the year. Even though the rains returned in greater quantities in November and December in the Arabica (São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Paraná) and Robusta regions in Rondônia, agents consulted by Cepea believe that these only stopped the losses.

In Espírito Santo, the climate has been favorable to Robusta since flowering, with many agents believing in production recovery in 2021/22. This scenario has resulted in sustaining coffee prices at levels close to R$600/sc since the last months of 2020.

And another factor that should keep domestic values ​​high until at least the beginning of the 2021/22 harvest is the high volume of coffee already sold from the current 2020/21 season.