Lack of rain in Mato Grosso threatens the 2025/26 harvest.

The Mato Grosso State Soybean and Corn Producers Association (Aprosoja MT) sent a letter to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) expressing concern about the 2025/26 harvest due to the lack of rain in the state. In the official document, sent this Friday (November 7th), the association highlights that the water crisis has caused some producers to lose what they had already planted, making reseeding necessary.

The official letter also reinforces concerns about institutional communication and requests that the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa), together with the National Supply Company (Conab), revise the official crop estimates in order to more accurately reflect the current climatic and productive situation in the state.

In addition to direct information from rural producers suffering from the weather conditions, the official document relies on data released by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), which pointed to a deviation in accumulated rainfall from September to October 2025 compared to the 26-year historical series. The accumulated rainfall volume highlights levels below the historical average for the state of Mato Grosso. The data also indicate that the progress of planting has lost momentum in recent days and is already below the average of the last five years.

Aprosoja MT explains in the document that widespread planting does not guarantee a healthy crop, and states that the lack of rain has caused irregular germination, slow growth, stand failures, risk of replanting, fragile crops, and other problems resulting from high temperatures.

Farmers in each region assessed the condition of their crops during this critical period.

The vice-president of Aprosoja MT, Luiz Pedro Bier, a producer in the eastern region, highlighted that the lack of rain has directly impacted the work of farmers. According to him, since the beginning of planting, rainfall has been irregular, and the situation has worsened in recent weeks, leading many producers to redo part of the areas already sown.

“The water shortage is noticeable; it’s not yet possible to quantify the financial losses, but we know we will suffer some losses. We have received reports from producers in the region who have had to replant. It’s an atypical situation for the beginning of November, when we still don’t have established rainfall and an extremely low rainfall index,” said Luiz Pedro Bier.

Also in the eastern region, the entity's advisory board member and producer Endrigo Dalcin stated that he lost at least 10% of what he had already planted due to irregular rainfall in the region. He is evaluating whether to replant or leave the yield low, as replanting in this area would compromise the window for planting corn. "The replanting of the first soybeans planted there on October 13th and 14th will still be evaluated; I don't know the quantity yet, but I believe that about 10% of the planted area will need replanting," he stated.

In the northern region of Mato Grosso, producer Adalberto Grando, delegate of the Sorriso Nucleus, reported that it hasn't rained for more than 15 days, which is already compromising part of the crops. He has been using pivot irrigation to try to preserve the sowing done in early October and reduce losses caused by the drought. Although he has not yet measured the total damage, the producer stated that expectations are low and that the farm's income is already compromised.

“The outlook for the next harvest is quite complicated, because we will have a reduction in soybean productivity and in the area planted with second-crop corn. By the end of 2026, revenue will be far below what we expected at the beginning of September, when we had a forecast of normal rainfall in October. The lack of this rain compromised our entire harvest,” lamented Adalberto Grando.

Just like in other regions, western Mato Grosso is also suffering from the water crisis at the start of planting. According to the vice-president of Aprosoja MT for the western region, Gilson Antunes de Melo, there will be a drop in productivity, since the soybeans are not developing properly. The farmer described the situation as "worrying".

“The producer started the harvest in very unfavorable conditions, with poorly germinated and poorly planted crops. We know that this, further down the line, results in a loss of productivity. It is a worrying situation, because we are in a year with no margin, and we have already started with a crop that will probably have a drop in productivity,” he said.

The Vice President of Aprosoja MT for the Southern Region, Fernando Ferri, assessed that it hasn't rained in the region for more than ten days, which is already resulting in low productivity on farms, with gaps in the stand and soybeans showing poor development.

"The biggest concern is having lower-than-expected productivity, with prices equal to or even worse than last season's. This has somewhat limited production expectations, since costs remain high and profitability is decreasing," he assessed.

Aprosoja MT continues to monitor the progress of planting for the 25/26 crop in Mato Grosso and reinforces the need for credit that is compatible with the difficulties faced by farmers in the face of climate crises.