July was marked by a significant increase in Arabica coffee prices

July was marked by the significant increase in Arabica coffee prices. At the beginning of the month, the prices were boosted by forecasts of cold and drought in the regions coffee trees in Brazil.

Despite the lower humidity is ideal for the harvest, many coffee growers were already concerned about the 2022/23 harvest (positive bienniality), due to the dry climate since the end of March. However, it was at the end of July that the increases in prices intensified after the occurrence of frosts in most producing regions.

In that scenario, the CEPEA/ESALQ Indicator for Arabica type 6, placed in the capital of São Paulo, operated above R$ 1.000/bag of 60 kg between July 22nd and 30th, reaching, in the 26th, the highest real daily price since January 2012, closing at R$ 1.067,27/sc (values ​​deflated by the IGP-DI of June/21).

Between 30 between June and July 30, the increase was a significant 170,23 Reais per bag (or 20,1%). For Robusta, prices also rose sharply in July, and the CEPEA/ESALQ Indicator of type 6 sieve 13 above closed the 30th at R$ 580,56/sc, an increase of 80,12 Reais per bag (or 16%) in relation to the 30th of June. On July 28th, specifically, the Indicator closed above R$ 600/sc, the highest real level since December 2017 (daily values ​​were deflated by the IGP-DI of Jun/21).

Second Cepea researchers, the variety's prices were driven by gains external markets and the reduction of sellers in the national spot. The futures, for their time, were influenced by concerns about the global supply of coffee in 2022/21, after the frosts in Brazil, even though Robusta crops have not been affected by the phenomenon.