January: the weather will be rainy in much of the country, according to Inmet

The forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) for the month of January 2024 indicates a tendency for below-average rainfall in a large part of the North region, in addition to areas in the South region and the states of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul (in yellow and orange on the map in figure 1a).

In most of the Central-West, Southeast and Northeast regions of the country, in addition to areas of Pará and Paraná, the forecast indicates rainfall totals within or slightly above average (light blue tones in figure 1a).

Considering Inmet's climate forecast for January 2024 and its possible impact on the 2023/24 grain harvest for the different producing regions, it is expected that in areas of Matopiba (a region that encompasses areas of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), The below-average rainfall observed in October and November was responsible for keeping water levels in the soil very low, disadvantaging the initial stages of summer crops. 

For January/2024, levels should remain low, with water deficit conditions and increased evapotranspiration due to high temperatures persisting.

In Central Brazil, the return of rain, which was observed in the second half of December/2023, contributed to the increase in water levels in the soil in some areas. This scenario has been important for the resumption of planting and development of first-crop crops, except in the north of Minas Gerais, where water levels in the soil are lower. However, more regular rains are forecast for January/2024, which could contribute to the recovery of water levels in the soil, favoring crops that are in phenological stages of greater water need.

In the South Region, the predicted rainfall volumes tend to keep water levels in the soil high, but with a lower probability of generating a water surplus in some locations in the month of January/2024. The reduction in rainfall compared to previous months may favor the resumption of sowing of first-crop crops in regions that are behind schedule.

Temperature

The forecast indicates that temperatures should be above average across practically the entire country (in yellow and orange on the map in figure 1b), with temperatures above 25ºC. However, in areas of Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Matopiba, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Pernambuco, the average temperature could reach 30ºC.

In the center-south of Rio Grande do Sul, north of Rio Grande do Norte, west of Paraná, temperatures close to the average are predicted (in gray on the map in figure 1b). In the west of Espírito Santo, the forecast indicates temperatures slightly below average (in blue on the map in figure 1b).