January had below-average rainfall in 41 municipalities in Mato Grosso do Sul

The Monthly Meteorological Analysis Bulletin prepared by technicians from Cemtec/MS (Weather and Climate Monitoring Center) shows that the month of January had rainfall below the historical average in 41 of the 47 municipalities covered by the State's meteorological station network. Bonito, located in the Southwest region, had the lowest rainfall compared to the historical average for the month. Only 43 millimeters of precipitation were recorded, a 77% drop compared to the average of 189,5 millimeters.

The lack of rain is a reflection of the El Niño phenomenon, which consists of the warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean and causes changes in the climate of the entire planet. “El Niño is occurring, it reached its maximum intensity between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. Projections indicate a de-intensification, therefore it is too early to say that the Winter will be drier than expected. However, we are lacking rain at the time when the highest volumes should be occurring and this may be needed later”, analyzes meteorologist Vinicius Sperling, from Cemtec/MS.

The low occurrence of convergence zones in the South Atlantic – a meteorological system that influences weather conditions – is also cited by Sperling as a factor for the low frequency of rain.

In Campo Grande, precipitation was 59% below the historical average, according to data collected by the Inmet meteorological station (National Institute of Meteorology) located at Embrapa Gado de Corte. However, there are four other official measurement points in the municipality maintained by Cemaden (National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts) and UFMS (Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul) in which the indices collected differ, but are also below average.

Only the municipalities of Juti, Corumbá, Iguatemi, Sete Quedas, Itaquiraí and Porto Murtinho presented precipitation rates above the historical average in the month of January. The highest record was in Juti, with 266,2 millimeters, which exceeded the historical average by 59%.

Regarding temperature, the minimum recorded last month was 14,6°C on the 27th in Amambai and the maximum was 40,2°C on the 8th in Água Clara. The lowest relative air humidity rate recorded was 11% in Jardim on the 11th and the highest gust of wind reached the municipality of Costa Rica on the 5th with a speed of 88,6 kilometers per hour.

The forecast indicates a 94% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will continue to influence the climate in the February-March-April quarter. This means that the formation and intensity of storms in the State can be increased. Another impact of the phenomenon is that it can amplify the high temperatures already recorded in summer and, consequently, generate new heat waves.