Irregular rainfall delays soybean planting.

Soybean planting for the 2025/26 season progressed at a slower pace in several producing regions of the country, reflecting irregular rainfall between September and October, according to Itaú BBA's Agro Mensal report. In states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, Maranhão, Minas Gerais, and Tocantins, producers faced interruptions in the fields and even the need for replanting in specific areas, increasing costs and raising concerns about the crop calendar and its influence on the second corn crop window.

Internationally, soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade rose throughout October, influenced by factors such as the slow progress of planting in Brazil, but mainly due to signals of a trade agreement between the United States and China. However, in the Brazilian market, the external increase was offset by the fall in premiums for the 2025/26 crop, which declined almost proportionally and kept export parity in Mato Grosso close to R$ 105/bag for March 2026. In the spot market, prices fell in October and continue to decline slightly in November, with the bag traded around R$ 119 in Sorriso, a drop of about 1% in the month.

Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its soybean production estimate for the 2025/26 crop downward, from 426 to 422 million tons, due to smaller harvests in the US and other countries. In Brazil, even with the delays, the national projection remains at around 178 million tons, supported by growth in planted area and yields close to the trend.

According to Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting firm, more consistent rainfall throughout November will be crucial for stabilizing the harvest pace, reducing production risks, and lessening the impact on the second crop calendar.