Inmet's climate forecast shows what rainfall and temperatures will be like until April 2022

National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) presented this Thursday (17/11), for the first time, the climate forecast with rainfall and temperature trends for the next six months. The forecast, which starts at the end of November 2021 and extends until April 2022, is based on the observation of past data and the behavior of the atmosphere, making a difference for rural producers' decision-making, for planning water generation and the viability of transport in the country's main river basins.

The data was presented during a live broadcast celebrating Inmet's 112th anniversary. "The six-month forecast will give rural producers the possibility of planning, in terms of meteorology, for an entire harvest cycle. This can guarantee greater productivity as long as climate management of rural production is carried out", explains the director of Inmet , Miguel Ivan Lacerda. 

Mapa's Secretary of Innovation, Sustainable Development and Irrigation, Fernando Camargo, said that advance climate forecasting is fundamental for agriculture, civil defense and society as a whole. “What is being launched here today is the dream of agriculture, which today feels absolutely fulfilled”, he commented.   

"Climate changes are here and we need to improve our advances in climate and meteorological forecasts to be able to support Brazilian agribusiness", added the deputy secretary of SDI, Cléber Soares. 

For more than ten years, Inmet has been providing a 3-month climate forecast with the Quarterly Climate Forecast.

Rain forecast for the next 6 months

November has proven to be a month with a lot of rain in the central-north region of Brazil and the result of the Inmet forecast model indicates that this pattern will be maintained until the end of the month. In addition, below-average rainfall is forecast for the South Region. 

The forecast for December indicates below-average rainfall (between 10 and 50mm) in Rio Grande do Sul, west of Santa Catarina, north of Minas Gerais, Acre, southwest of Amazonas and in areas of Matopiba (a region that covers areas of the States of Maranhão , Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia). In other areas, rainfall is expected to be close to or slightly above average. 

In January, below-average rainfall is forecast in Goiás, Minas Gerais, the Federal District, Espírito Santo and the center of Mato Grosso do Sul, south and east of Tocantins, south of Piauí and Bahia (except in the east of the State). The South Region may have slightly above average rainfall, as well as the State of São Paulo and the northern part of Brazil. 

February may have irregular rains in practically the entire central region and the south of the country. Highlights include areas in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina where the model indicates, again, rainfall below the climatology (average). 

At the beginning of autumn (March and April), Inmet's climate forecast model indicates below-average rainfall in the South Region and also in Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Mato Grosso. In March 2022, the trend is for above-average rain in Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, Piauí and central and southern Ceará. There is also a tendency for above-average rain in the south of Minas Gerais and north of São Paulo, a region with important reservoirs for the electricity sector.

Average Temperature for the next 6 months 

In general, temperatures are expected to be above average (up to 1°C) in the central area of ​​Brazil between the months of December 2021 and February 2022. In the South Region, temperatures are expected to be close to average during this same period. 

The results of the Inmet model for the months of March and April 2022 indicate normal to above-average temperatures for practically the entire South Region. This may be a sign that there is still no formation of frost at the beginning of autumn. 

These forecasts are updated monthly and there is a continuous improvement in results.

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