Imea points to an increase in rural debt in Mato Grosso.

A new study on rural debt prepared by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) points to an increase in problematic credit, defaults, and renegotiations in the state. This growth, considered significant by Imea, occurred as a result of falling commodity prices, higher interest rates, international conflicts, and high production costs.

The survey compares the periods from 2017 to 2021, marked by a favorable cycle for the sector, with the years from 2022 to 2026, when the economic scenario began to put pressure on the profitability of rural producers throughout Brazil.

According to Imea, the new data shows that Mato Grosso experienced a surge in the expansion of rural credit. The volume of resources used by producers jumped from R$ 15,58 billion in the 2016/17 harvest to R$ 47,43 billion in 2023/24. The financing for soybean and corn crops alone, for example, increased from R$ 5,65 billion to R$ 15 billion in the same period.

At the same time, the cost of this financing gradually increased, and credit programs saw rises in interest rates. Meanwhile, the Selic rate reached 14,25% per year, which increased the financial cost of operations and reduced the investment capacity of producers.

According to the superintendent of Imea, Cleiton Gauer, the study shows that production is not the biggest challenge for farms. “Producers continue to produce well, but this effort is no longer translating into financial results. In addition to productivity, they need to manage high production costs, lower prices than those recorded post-pandemic, and now, a larger volume of accumulated debt. Making operations increasingly efficient has become fundamental to getting through this period,” he says.

The institute's survey shows that, up to April of this year, so-called problematic credit (which includes delinquent, renegotiated, and extended operations) reached R$ 21,79 billion in Mato Grosso. This amount represents 18,22% of the entire rural credit portfolio of the State, that is, the highest percentage in the historical series. For comparison, Imea points out that in 2022 this index was only 2,08%.

Study shows that the rate of problematic credit reaches 18,22% in Mato Grosso.

According to Cleiton, more than half of this volume corresponds to renegotiated operations, indicating that several producers are seeking to reorganize their finances to maintain the activity.

“When we add up defaults, renegotiated and extended operations, almost 20% of rural credit in Mato Grosso presents some type of challenge. A large part of these debts will extend into the next harvests, requiring financial planning so that the producer can honor their commitments,” he suggests.

The research also indicates that delinquency exceeding 90 days reached 4,98% of the state's portfolio, totaling R$ 5,25 billion in overdue transactions.

As highlighted by Imea, based on data from Serasa Experian, the number of Judicial Reorganizations (RJ) in agribusiness is another factor that needs attention. Since 2023, Mato Grosso has led the national ranking and, in 2025 alone, registered 332 requests, surpassing states such as Goiás (296) and Paraná (248).

According to the superintendent of Imea, this scenario highlights that the main risk for the sector currently is financial. “There isn't an immediate concern about widespread insolvency, but the indicators have grown very rapidly. In just a few years, we went from a scenario where approximately 2% of the portfolio presented problems to more than 18%. This is the great challenge that producers will have to manage in the coming harvests.”

Cleiton also believes that this increase in indebtedness is a consequence of the combination of three factors: the fall in soybean and corn prices after the post-pandemic cycle of high prices, the maintenance of still high production costs, influenced by the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the increase in interest rates.

The research was conducted using data from Imea, the Central Bank (BC), the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Rural Learning Service of Mato Grosso (Senar MT), and Serasa Experian to evaluate indicators of credit, rural insurance, and financial risk.