IPCF rises 5% in May and warns against purchasing fertilizers

The Fertilizer Purchasing Power Index (IPCF) for May 2025 closed at 1,20, up 5% from the previous month. The change is the result of yet another period marked by falling commodity prices and rising fertilizer prices.

The prices of raw materials used in fertilizer production rose, on average, by 3,6% from April to May. The main increases observed were in Phosphate (4%), Simple Superphosphate (5%), Potassium Chloride (3%) and Urea (3%). This upward movement puts pressure on production costs and directly contributes to the increase in the IPCF.

The average price of commodities fell by around 1%. Soybeans remained stable, corn registered a significant drop of over 7%, and cotton rose by 4%, which was not enough to reverse the negative scenario. This decline is directly linked to the advance of soybean and corn planting in the United States, which is occurring under good weather conditions; the end of the soybean harvest in Brazil, with high grain availability; and the beginning of the second crop harvest, which presents good preliminary numbers and positive expectations.

The current scenario continues with monitoring of the soybean and corn harvest in the United States, which may be affected by heavy rains, and the harvest of the second crop in Brazil, which still depends on favorable weather conditions to maintain good expectations. The increase in the index requires attention from producers, especially with the summer harvest approaching. There is still a significant portion of the market to be negotiated, which makes the moment of purchase strategic and sensitive to fluctuations in trade.

The growing fertilizer market and the increase in imports to meet this demand generate a greater flow of ships and a potential backlog of deliveries. Added to this is the structural limitation of the global phosphorus supply matrix, concentrated in a few geographies and pressured by a growing global demand. Supply, in turn, remains restricted, with the main producing countries already committed to previously contracted sales. It is not easy to convert planned management with MAP to Super Simples, although we have already observed some movement in this direction, it is not yet the majority and may have agronomic implications.

Given the current global scenario, marked by possible logistical restrictions from China and structural limitations in the global supply of phosphorus, and also under pressure from growing demand, volumes may accumulate during the harvest period. With the shorter import window and commitments already made by the main suppliers, we can expect a greater concentration for the second half of the year. If the producer postpones the purchase decision, he may face delays in delivery.