Inmet predicts climate contrasts in Brazil in June

The forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) for the month of June indicates above-average rainfall in the northern and eastern portions of the Northeast Region, Rio Grande do Sul and northern part of the North Region (blue tone on the map in Figure 1a). In the Central-West and Southeast regions, in addition to the interior of the Northeast Region, southern Amazon, Paraná and Santa Catarina, rainfall volumes should be between the climatological average (gray tone on the map in Figure 1a) and below average (yellow tone on the map in Figure 1a).

For the Northeast Region, above-average rainfall is forecast in northern Maranhão, Piauí and Ceará, as well as in the strip from Paraíba to Sergipe (blue tone on the map in Figure 1a), with volumes that may exceed 80 mm. In the interior of the region, there is normally a reduction in rainfall, where the forecast indicates volumes close to or below 60 mm, mainly in western Bahia, southern Maranhão and Piauí, where there may be consecutive days without rain (yellow tone on the map in Figure 1a).

In most of the Central-West and Southeast regions, the forecast indicates rainfall close to the historical average (gray tones on the map in Figure 1a), with volumes below 100 mm. It is possible that in some locations there will be consecutive days without rain. In the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, rainfall varies between 30 mm and 80 mm in the month of June and the trend is for rainfall slightly below this range (yellow tones on the map in Figure 1a).

In the South Region, rainfall is expected to be close to and below the climatology in the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina (shades of gray and yellow on the map in Figure 1a), with volumes below 180 mm. In Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to and above the historical average (shades of gray and blue on the map in Figure 1a), which may exceed 140 mm throughout the month.

See the agricultural impact

Considering Inmet's climate forecast for June 2025 and its possible impacts on the main crops, the forecast of above-average rainfall in the eastern part of the Northeast could benefit third-crop bean and corn crops in the Sealba region (which covers the states of Sergipe, Alagoas and Bahia). However, in the Matopiba region (which covers the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), there is a tendency for reduced rainfall, which could cause water restrictions in part of the second-crop corn crops, especially during the flowering phase, a period in which the crop demands greater water availability.

For the Central-West and Southeast regions, the forecast for June indicates rainfall volumes close to and below average. In this scenario, the expected accumulations should be sufficient to favor the maturation and harvesting of sugarcane and coffee. In Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso, the predicted weather conditions should not negatively impact the second-season wheat and corn crops.

In the South Region, rainfall conditions close to and below average in Paraná and Santa Catarina will be favorable for completing the harvest of first-crop crops, as well as second-crop beans.

Temperature

As for temperatures, the forecast indicates that they should be above average in much of the country (orange tone on the map in Figure 1b). On the other hand, in areas of the North and Northeast regions, average temperatures should remain close to the climatology, varying between 25°C and 28°C. 

Despite the trend of above-average temperatures in south-central Brazil, temperatures are expected to remain below 20°C in areas of south-central Minas Gerais, eastern São Paulo and southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. Furthermore, in higher altitude areas of the South and Southeast regions, the incursion of cold air masses could cause sharp drops in temperatures, with temperatures potentially falling below 15°C.