Inmet predicts a hot and dry quarter in Brazil

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) released the agroclimatic forecast for August, September and October 2025. The document is the result of cooperation with the Weather and Climate Forecast Center of the National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/Inpe) and the Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (Funceme), and indicates a drier quarter with above-average temperatures in most of the country. 

Northern Region 

In the North Region, rainfall volumes are expected to be below the historical average for the quarter, especially in Roraima, Rondônia, eastern Amazonas, southern and northwestern Pará, Amapá, and western Tocantins. Reductions are expected to be up to 30 mm compared to the climatological forecast. On the other hand, in the extreme northwest of Amazonas, amounts above 10 mm are forecast compared to the historical average. 

Regarding temperatures, deviations above the historical average are expected to prevail in almost the entire region, with values ranging from 1,0 ºC to 2,0 ºC above the regional climatology. 

The water deficit is expected to exceed 100 mm in August. This scenario demands special attention to water management, as it could affect late-season crops, agroforestry systems, pastures, and irrigated crops with high water demands. 

North East Region

The forecast indicates below-average rainfall in areas of Maranhão, western Piauí, northern Ceará, and southern Bahia. In contrast, the eastern coast of Alagoas, Sergipe, and Pernambuco is expected to experience above-average rainfall, with amounts exceeding 10 mm. 

Air temperatures are expected to remain above the historical average throughout the Northeast, with values between 0,5°C and 1,0°C above average. 

The water deficit will intensify in September and October, with levels exceeding 100 mm in Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, western Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, and the semiarid region of Bahia. These conditions may limit the development of rainfed crops, impact pastures, and require special attention to supplemental irrigation. 

Midwest region

Below-average rainfall will be expected across all states in Brazil's Central-West region, with a reduction of up to 30 mm compared to the historical average for the period. This quarter, the region is in its dry season, raising the risk of wildfires. 

Temperatures are expected to remain above average across the region due to the persistent action of dry, hot air masses, with values between 1,0°C and 2,0°C above the historical average.

The water deficit intensifies continuously between August and October, with levels that can exceed 100 mm in areas of eastern Mato Grosso and western Goiás. Productivity reductions may be observed due to reduced soil water availability. 

Southeast

The weather forecast indicates below-average rainfall for the period across southeastern Brazil, with a decrease of up to 30 mm. Temperatures are expected to remain above average, particularly in western São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region (MG), where temperatures could be up to 2,0°C above average. 

Water deficiency tends to predominate, especially in the months of September and October, with values between -60 mm and -130 mm in the north of Minas Gerais. 

South

The Southern region is expected to experience above-average rainfall in the states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, as well as in southern Paraná. Rainfall of up to 50 mm above average is expected across much of Rio Grande do Sul, while central and northern Paraná will experience rainfall within or below the historical average. Temperatures will remain above average throughout the region. 

The water surplus is expected to prevail throughout the period. This condition is considered favorable for the development of winter crops, such as wheat, oats, and barley, and contributes to the crop's adequate vegetative growth.

Ocean conditions and trends

According to the agroclimatic bulletin, monthly average anomalies in the reference region for defining the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have been close to zero in recent months. This behavior reinforces the persistence of neutral conditions in the Equatorial Pacific. 

Analysis of the Enos forecast model, carried out by the International Climate Research Institute (IRI), indicates that neutrality conditions will remain during the quarter, with a probability of 62%.